On 13/10, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced a revised global economic growth forecast of 3,1% for the current year. This projection marks an increase from the 3% anticipated in July, though it remains slower than last year's 3,5%. The IMF maintained its 2027 growth forecast at 3,4%, with the inflation outlook for this year holding steady at 4,7%.

The IMF highlights AI-related investments as a primary driver for the improved economic outlook. These investments have stimulated global demand, pushing economic activity in the first half of the year beyond expectations, even amidst ongoing conflicts and trade tensions. Financial markets have largely remained stable, a trend partly reflecting what the IMF describes as "AI-related euphoria".

Despite the positive revisions, challenges persist. Silvana Tenreyro, an economic advisor at the IMF, cautioned reporters that "The world economy remains dynamic, but it is reaching its limits." She urged global officials to prioritize the restoration of fiscal security and robust supply chains.

Economies have shown resilience in adapting to energy market disruptions. The IMF noted that the ability to adapt and utilize strategic buffers has been crucial in mitigating the shock. Key measures include diversifying fuel sources and releasing strategic oil reserves to stabilize energy markets. The IMF anticipates the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in 3/2027, returning to pre-conflict conditions by 10/2027. Crude oil exports from the Gulf in September already reached 88% of pre-conflict levels, indicating improved traffic.

However, these protective buffers are expected to be "quickly depleted" in the short term. The IMF warns that potential energy supply constraints could hinder the growth momentum generated by AI. Additionally, the fiscal health of governments worldwide presents another significant challenge.

In response to these challenges, Tenreyro emphasized the need for appropriate monetary policy. She stated that policy should be "sufficiently tight" to guide inflation back to its target levels. The independence of central banks is also vital, especially as governments face mounting financial pressures.

Global economic growth, however, is not uniform. Currently, 32 economies are responsible for 95% of the world's growth, showcasing a concentrated distribution of economic expansion.

Certain countries are experiencing sustained or improved growth, largely due to minimal impact from energy shocks and their ability to meet AI demand. Taiwan, for instance, is projected to achieve 10,7% growth this year. South Korea's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) could reach 3,3%, a three-fold increase from last year, driven by semiconductor demand. The United States' GDP is forecast to grow by 2,3% in both 2026 and 2027, bolstered by consumption, fiscal policies, and technology investments.

Conversely, energy-importing economies face significant headwinds. These include elevated import costs, a reduction in real incomes, and diminished fiscal flexibility. The Euro area, for example, is expected to see growth of only 1,1% this year. Moreover, the GDP of the Middle East and Central Asia could contract by 0,3%.

China's economy is projected to expand by 4,5% this year and 4% in 2027. However, high oil prices and structural issues continue to exert pressure on the country's economic activities.

The IMF concluded that the global economy is not merely experiencing fluctuations in pace. Instead, growth is undergoing a redistribution among economies, with outcomes largely dependent on the extent of impact from global conflicts and the rising demand for AI technologies.

Ha Thu (according to CNBC, Reuters)