On the afternoon of 9/9, Brent crude oil prices rose 2.2% to 100.07 USD a barrel, marking the first time since July that Brent has reached this level. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also saw an increase of 1.8%, reaching 94.7 USD.

Oil prices surged as US-Iran tensions escalated, fueling concerns about ongoing disruptions to Middle East energy supplies. On 8/9, the US military destroyed five Iranian oil vessels, responding to an attack on a US warship. The US Central Command (CENTCOM) reported that the US warship successfully evaded the Iranian attack, with no personnel injured.

The Middle East conflict has now entered its seventh month. Daan Struyven, head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, forecasts oil prices could exceed 120 USD a barrel if vessel attacks persist. "This is certainly unavoidable," he told CNBC.

This week, Iran-backed Houthi forces attacked Saudi Arabian energy infrastructure, setting several oil facilities ablaze. This raises the risk of the conflict spreading significantly. Houthi's actions could jeopardize crude oil shipments through the Red Sea, a crucial alternative route to the Strait of Hormuz. The strait has been largely blockaded since hostilities began on 28/2.

Goldman Sachs anticipates that oil exports from the Persian Gulf will gradually recover as producing nations adapt to disruptions. This includes utilizing alternative shipping routes and enhancing pipeline capacity.

Brent oil prices have climbed 25% since early last month, as hopes for a long-term agreement between the US and Iran diminished. Beyond Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and HSBC recently upgraded their short-term Brent oil price forecasts.

Ha Thu (according to CNBC, Reuters)