The world is facing a declining birth rate, with the underlying causes not yet universally agreed upon. Beyond factors such as the social media trend of having fewer children, rising childcare costs, and increasing work pressure, Nobel laureate economist Claudia Goldin once proposed that men's roles contribute significantly to this issue.

According to Goldin's theory, many husbands do not share household chores fairly. Consequently, women face a difficult choice: have children and potentially sacrifice their careers, or prioritize their professional lives and have fewer children. Goldin believed that in countries where men actively participate in family care, women would feel more secure about having children. This theory was reinforced by a 2008 study published in Economic Perspectives, which found that for every 10% increase in housework done by men, the fertility rate would rise by 0,4 children per woman.

Illustration: The Australian.

However, actual data from many nations presents a contradictory picture. Despite men in developed countries increasing their participation in housework and childcare over several decades, the number of children being born continues to decline steadily.

For instance, in Finland, the housework disparity between men and women nearly halved from 2010-2021, yet the birth rate plummeted from 1,9 to 1,3. Similarly, in South Korea, even though men increased their share of housework by 42% from 1999 to 2024, the birth rate still dropped from 1,4 to a record low of 0,75.

In light of these figures, Ms. Goldin acknowledged that her economic model might require various adjustments. She also noted that cross-country comparisons were not the primary focus of her original research.

Bruce Sacerdote, a co-author of the 2008 study, suggested that while the initial theory might hold some truth, its impact has likely been overshadowed by other significant social factors. Mr. Sacerdote described low birth rates as the outcome of a multidimensional crisis. This crisis encompasses trends such as delayed marriages, soaring housing prices, intense career pressure, and evolving life perspectives. He concluded that while men sharing family burdens is essential for maintaining happiness, data has shown it is not a "magic wand" to reverse the declining population trend.

Bao Nhien (According to Atlantic)