The Institute of Sociology and Psychology (Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences) held a conference on 23/9 on Vietnam's birth rate: current situation and policy solutions.

Dr. Nguyen Thi Thanh Thuy, a lecturer at Hanoi University of Culture, noted that Vietnam's total fertility rate remains at replacement level, but with significant regional variations. In 2024, the national average fertility rate was 1.91 children per woman, while Ho Chi Minh City reached only 1.39 and the Southeast region 1.56 – both below replacement level, posing a significant challenge.

The trend of single living is also on the rise. The percentage of single-person households increased from 11% in 1999 to 14.3% in 2019, reflecting a shift in young people's choices, with many preferring to live alone rather than marry early.

Economic pressure is the primary reason for the low birth rate in urban areas, according to Dr. Thuy. "Young couples face soaring housing prices, expensive education, and healthcare, creating a huge financial barrier. They are afraid to marry or have children due to the lack of stable housing," she said, emphasizing that the lack of financial security makes many hesitant to start a family.

The cost of raising children is also increasing. The Ho Chi Minh City Development Research Institute estimated the total cost of raising a child from birth to 18 years old can reach billions of Vietnamese dong (VND), including tuition, healthcare, and living expenses. High housing costs force many young couples to live with their parents, lacking privacy, while an unstable labor market makes them even more cautious about having children.

Dr. Nguyen Thi Thanh Thuy. Photo: Nguyen Phong

Dr. Nguyen Thi Thanh Thuy. Photo: Nguyen Phong

Beyond financial pressures, the mindset of young people also differs from previous generations. They prioritize personal and career development before starting a family. Data from the General Statistics Office shows the average age of first marriage for women has increased from 22.8 in 2000 to 25.2 in 2024. A survey also found that 70% of young women in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City consider career stability a prerequisite before considering having children.

Women also bear a double burden, working outside the home while caring for the family, making it difficult to balance career and personal life, thus affecting their decision to have children. The percentage of young people choosing to live single and independently is also rapidly increasing, especially in major cities.

Regarding policy, Dr. Thuy said the lack of clarity in financial support for couples with children creates uncertainty. A 2019 study by the Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences found that many young couples do not trust existing support packages and feel they lack information to make decisions.

Professor Dang Nguyen Anh, former Vice President of the Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences, agreed that the birth rate in urban areas is often lower than in rural areas due to high living costs, cramped housing conditions, lack of childcare space, and time pressure. He analyzed that in modern society, childbirth and raising children come with increasing costs, from education and healthcare to care services, and can also lead to lost career opportunities, especially for women. "Many young couples in urban areas are stressed and tired, so they choose to delay having children or only have one child to focus on care and ensure quality of life," Professor Anh said.

Adding a demographic perspective, Master Nguyen Thanh Tung from the Department of Population (Ministry of Health) said that in 2024, Vietnam's population reached 101 million, increasing by an average of one million per year. The annual population growth rate has slowed down, reaching only 0.99% in the 2019-2024 period, a decrease of 0.23% compared to the 2014-2019 period. Vietnam has also gone through the period of largest absolute population increase, when the number of women of reproductive age (15-49) peaked in 2022 at 25.3 million and began to decline.

Mr. Tung is concerned that the declining birth rate will pose a major challenge to the goal of making Vietnam a developed, high-income country by 2045. "More profoundly, it raises the question of the nation's sustainable development, avoiding the low fertility trap that many developed countries are facing," he said.

Mr. Nguyen Thanh Tung. Photo: Nguyen Phong

Mr. Nguyen Thanh Tung. Photo: Nguyen Phong

Young people need access to housing.

Proposing solutions to encourage young people to marry and have children, Dr. Nguyen Thi Thanh Thuy suggested redesigning the social security network to create a solid "safety net" for families. She emphasized that the government needs more breakthrough policies on social housing, low-interest and long-term loans, to help young families access housing. The Ministry of Finance and the State Bank need to develop preferential loan packages for housing and economic support projects for this group.

Vietnam can also learn from models of successful pro-natalist countries, such as increasing maternity and child-rearing allowances and extending parental leave for both parents. In Northern Europe, particularly Sweden, paid parental leave for men has encouraged them to actively participate in childcare.

The state needs to invest heavily in public services such as kindergartens and healthcare. "Reducing tuition fees and providing comprehensive health insurance for children will significantly reduce the financial burden on families," Dr. Thuy said, citing that preschool education costs in urban areas account for 25-30% of average income, an "alarming" figure.

Master Nguyen Thanh Tung said that first of all, it is necessary to build a comprehensive legal framework to address issues of fertility rate, population distribution, population quality, and migration, to minimize the negative impact on people's reproductive decisions. At the same time, the State must soon build a system of family welfare policies, initially focusing on health and education, to help reduce barriers and pressure for couples. He hopes that although global experience shows that pro-natalist policies are often ineffective in countries that have fallen into low fertility, with Vietnam – in the early stages of decline – each policy introduced can have a certain effect.

"More broadly, there needs to be social security policies on housing and employment for young people, both to stabilize their lives and to create favorable conditions for marriage and childbirth," he said, noting the need to raise public awareness of reproductive health.

Mr. Tung cited data showing the average age of first marriage is currently 27.3; 29.4 for men and 25.2 for women. The time spent studying, working, and then 5-9 years later getting married "is too long." Therefore, he said, it is necessary to use communication and socio-economic levers to reduce the age of marriage. "If successful, the birth rate will certainly increase, because according to the law, having children early will result in more children," he said.

Professor Dang Nguyen Anh added that effective pro-natalist policies cannot rely solely on financial support measures such as allowances, family deductions, or encouraging couples to have two children. It is important to simultaneously develop a system of quality childcare and reproductive health services, create conditions for work-life balance, and strengthen social trust in fertility norms.

Vu Tuan