The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting reported that as of this morning, the super typhoon was located approximately 230 km from Luzon Island, Philippines, with maximum sustained winds of 221 km/h, reaching category 16-17, and gusts exceeding category 17. It is moving west-northwest at a speed of 20 km/h.

By tomorrow morning, the super typhoon will be in the northern part of the South China Sea, maintaining its current speed and direction, with winds reaching category 17 and gusts exceeding category 17. At 1 a.m. on 24/9, Ragasa will be about 490 km east of the Leizhou Peninsula (China), with maximum sustained winds of category 16-17 and gusts exceeding category 17.

A day later, the typhoon will be in the waters east of the Leizhou Peninsula, with wind speeds decreasing to category 14-15, but gusts still exceeding category 17. It will then shift direction to west-southwest, entering the Gulf of Tonkin.

Projected path and affected area of Super Typhoon Sagasa on 22/9. Photo: NCHMF

Projected path and affected area of Super Typhoon Sagasa on 22/9. Photo: NCHMF

The Japan Meteorological Agency predicts that the super typhoon will reach its peak intensity of 198 km/h today and tomorrow (before and after entering the South China Sea). The Hong Kong Observatory suggests it could reach 230 km/h.

Regarding its path, the Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts the typhoon will move towards the Leizhou Peninsula and then into the Gulf of Tonkin. The Hong Kong Observatory predicts it will make landfall on the Guangdong coast, then veer towards Leizhou before entering the Gulf of Tonkin.

Due to the super typhoon's influence, the meteorological agency has determined a level 4 disaster risk (on a scale of 1 to 5) for the eastern part of the northern South China Sea. Wind speeds in this area will gradually increase to category 8-9, then to category 10-14. Near the eye of the storm, winds will reach category 15-17 with gusts exceeding category 17, and waves will be over 10 meters high. Vessels operating in these dangerous zones are all at risk.

Yesterday, Hoang Phuc Lam, Deputy Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, outlined two possible scenarios for the super typhoon's movement. First, if the typhoon moves towards Guangdong, its intensity will decrease by two to four categories upon entering the Gulf of Tonkin.

Second, if the typhoon moves primarily westward on a lower trajectory, its intensity will decrease less, resulting in a greater impact from strong winds and large waves in the Gulf of Tonkin. In this scenario, coastal areas from Thanh Hoa to Hue, including the northern coast, will experience very strong winds and heavy rain.

In addition, according to Mr. Lam, a mass of early-season cold air is currently moving south. The interaction of this cold air with the typhoon in the coming days will complicate the typhoon's trajectory and intensity, leading to significant uncertainty in long-range forecasts (beyond three days).

Forming from a tropical depression on the evening of 18/9, Typhoon Ragasa has intensified by eight categories in the past four days, becoming a super typhoon. This afternoon, the National Steering Committee for Natural Disaster Prevention and Control will meet with relevant agencies to formulate a response plan.

The Northwest Pacific has recorded three super typhoons (maximum sustained winds of 201 km/h or more, category 16 or higher) in 2024: Yagi, Gaemi, and Krathon. Super Typhoon Yagi, which made landfall in Vietnam, caused a series of natural disasters including strong winds, landslides, flash floods, and widespread flooding. Yagi resulted in 318 deaths and 26 missing persons, causing nearly 84,000 billion VND in economic damage to Vietnam.

From October to December, the number of typhoons and tropical depressions is forecast to be higher than the multi-year average (more than four storms on average, with nearly two making landfall).

Gia Chinh