The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting announced that from 30/6 to 1/7, a tropical convergence zone will form over the central South China Sea, connected to a low-pressure area currently active in the central Philippines.

It is forecast that on 1/7, this low-pressure area will enter the South China Sea, with an 80-85% probability of strengthening into a tropical depression, and then a 60-65% probability of further developing into a typhoon.

From 1/7, the northeastern and central South China Sea will experience strong winds of force 5-6, gradually increasing as the low-pressure area develops. By 2/7, the sea area from Khanh Hoa to Ca Mau, and the southern South China Sea (including the western part of the Truong Sa archipelago), will have strong southwesterly winds of force 6, gusting to force 7-8, with waves 2-3 meters high.

Location of the low-pressure area on the afternoon of 30/6. *Photo: Disaster Monitoring System*

The meteorological agency also warned that strong showers and thunderstorms are expected in the sea area from Khanh Hoa to An Giang, the Gulf of Thailand, and the southern South China Sea. During thunderstorms, waves could exceed 3 meters, and strong thunderstorm activity may expand to northern sea areas.

On land, due to the combined effects of the tropical convergence zone and the low-pressure area in the South China Sea, northern Vietnam and Thanh Hoa province are highly likely to experience widespread moderate to heavy rain from approximately 4/7 to 7/7. This heavy rainfall increases the risk of whirlwinds, lightning, flash floods, landslides in mountainous regions, and inundation in low-lying urban areas.

The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting urged the National Steering Committee for Disaster Prevention and Control, along with relevant ministries, sectors, and provincial and city People's Committees, to proactively implement response plans.

Since the beginning of the year, the South China Sea has experienced one tropical depression, which did not affect Vietnam. The meteorological agency assessed that from June to August, the South China Sea is forecast to experience approximately 5 typhoons and tropical depressions, consistent with the multi-year average. Nearly two of these are expected to directly impact mainland Vietnam. From September to December, typhoon and tropical depression activity is projected to be lower than the multi-year average.

Despite the reduced number of typhoons, the meteorological agency warns that the risk of extreme weather phenomena, such as: localized heavy rain, flash floods, and landslides, remains high, especially in the mountainous areas of northern and central Vietnam.

In 2025, the South China Sea recorded 21 typhoons and tropical depressions, the highest number since data collection began in 1961. Natural disasters that year caused 484 deaths and disappearances, with economic damage exceeding 104.700 billion VND, making it one of the most devastating years for natural disasters in Vietnam.

Gia Chinh