CryptoQuant's 30-day apparent demand metric (ADM), a key data analysis platform for market organizations and experts, has dropped to negative 147,000 bitcoin (BTC). This marks the lowest level since December 2025.
The ADM compares new supply from miners and existing bitcoin returning to circulation with the amount of bitcoin the market absorbs. A positive ADM indicates strong buyer absorption of new and recirculated supply. Conversely, a negative ADM signifies that the market is receiving more BTC than buyers can absorb.
This lack of absorption poses a challenge to the current recovery. While bitcoin has rallied since April, this upward trend has not generated the immediate buying demand typical of a sustainable uptrend. Early this month, data showed demand improving from negative 91,000 BTC in April to around negative 11,000 BTC, approaching equilibrium. However, the recent decline of the index back to negative 147,000 BTC suggests that recent sentiment improvements have dissipated.
Other indicators echo this sentiment. Coinbase Premium has consistently remained negative since late April. This metric tracks the percentage difference between bitcoin prices on Coinbase (the US market) and other global exchanges like Binance. A positive premium signals strong buying from US institutional and individual investors, while a negative premium indicates weaker US demand or stronger selling pressure compared to the global market.
These indicators primarily reflect activity in the spot market. This suggests that buying pressure in the futures market has largely propelled bitcoin's recovery from the 65,000 USD range.
Historically, futures-driven rallies are more susceptible to reversals. Positions can close rapidly if funding fees—periodic payments between buyers and sellers to align prices with market reality—shift or when liquidations commence. Conversely, spot market accumulation tends to be more sustainable. Buyers commit full capital and acquire actual BTC, meaning this demand is less likely to vanish with an initial price correction.
While these signals do not imply an immediate sharp decline for bitcoin, weak demand could lead to a protracted sideways trading range. This scenario would make the market heavily dependent on new spot buying to push prices beyond current levels.
Should this spot buying fail to materialize, the 70,000 USD level becomes critical. CryptoQuant identifies this as the realized cost basis for short-term traders, where most of their paper profits have recently eroded, diminishing profit-taking incentives.
Last night (Vietnam time), the world's largest cryptocurrency briefly climbed to the 78,000 USD region, mirroring gains in US stocks. However, bitcoin quickly retreated below 76,000 USD early this morning, marking a nearly 2% drop from yesterday.
The downturn is attributed to financial "whales" liquidating holdings. Alex Thorn, head of research at cryptocurrency financial group Galaxy, reported detecting a significant sale of iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) shares valued at 1,289 billion USD. He did not identify the seller or clarify if the transaction was an outright sale or a structured transfer between partners.
IBIT, BlackRock's spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), is managed by one of the world's largest asset managers. Over the past two years, it has emerged as a significant source of institutional demand for bitcoin. Traders closely monitor the fund's capital flows and substantial transactions.
Tieu Gu (via CoinDesk)
