Global oil prices reached a four-month high, with Brent crude closing at 107.6 USD per barrel on 10/9, a 6.3% increase. US WTI crude also rose 6.7% to 102 USD per barrel. Both benchmarks continued to climb by one USD this morning, marking their highest levels since May. The market surge is attributed to escalating US-Iran tensions this week, contributing to an over 18% increase in prices since the beginning of the month as investors brace for a prolonged conflict in the Middle East.

The escalating tensions have been underscored by recent developments. According to The Wall Street Journal, top White House advisors have reportedly discussed with President Donald Trump the possibility of the conflict extending beyond 1/2029. This contradicts Mr. Trump's statement on 9/9, where he asserted that hostilities would conclude swiftly after the midterm elections. Despite his repeated claims over several months that the conflict was nearing its end, fighting has subsequently intensified.

This month, Iran has made multiple attempts to attack US warships. In retaliation, the US military has destroyed at least eight Iranian oil tankers since 5/9. Furthermore, Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen launched attacks this week on several energy facilities and other targets in Saudi Arabia.

Domestically, US diesel prices have consistently set new records, now exceeding 6 USD per gallon. Gasoline prices this week also reached a three-month high.

Experts are closely monitoring the situation. Daan Struyven, head of global commodity research at Goldman Sachs, believes the escalating US-Iran conflict increases the risk of oil prices surpassing 120 USD per barrel. Andrei Constantin, a trading advisor at TFP Software FZCO, added that the physical market could tighten further if the volume of oil transported via maritime routes continues to decrease, if the conflict spreads, or if energy infrastructure is threatened.

Ha Thu (according to CNBC)