The Ho Chi Minh City Statistics Office reported that the gross regional domestic product (GRDP) for Q1 2026 is estimated to have grown by 8.27% compared to the same period in 2025. Excluding oil and gas, the increase was 8.58%. This represents the strongest Q1 growth in over five years, laying a crucial foundation for economic acceleration in the remaining quarters of 2026.
The services sector remains the primary growth driver for Ho Chi Minh City. It expanded by 8.91%, accounting for 51.9% of the GRDP and contributing 56% to the overall GRDP increase.
In contrast, the industry and construction sector grew by 7.73%, representing 35.2% of GRDP but contributing only 32.6% to growth. Construction activities increased by 8.05%, contributing 2.2% to the overall rise. The Ho Chi Minh City Statistics Office noted that both these sectors performed below expectations.
Despite improvements in industrial production for some key sectors, rising input costs, particularly due to volatile fuel prices, pressured businesses. While several major construction projects have commenced, creating initial spillover effects, their contribution has not yet matched the investment momentum needed to drive growth.
A significant positive for the economic hub in the last quarter was the sustained attractive business environment. Over 13,600 new businesses were established, a 46.7% increase, with registered capital nearing 91,400 billion VND, up 46.6%. The city also attracted nearly 2.9 billion USD in foreign direct investment (FDI), a substantial 219.7% rise year-on-year.
Overall, the Ho Chi Minh City Statistics Office observed that the city's economy maintained a positive growth trend. However, it remained influenced by global economic fluctuations, especially rising energy prices and input costs. Looking ahead to Q2, a survey of manufacturing businesses revealed that 77% anticipate stable or more favorable conditions, with positive projections for food processing, textiles, electronics, and electrical equipment. Nevertheless, 22.9% of businesses still foresee greater difficulties.
Ho Chi Minh City aims for GRDP growth exceeding 10% in 2026. To achieve this, the Ho Chi Minh City Statistics Office emphasized the need for increased monitoring and analysis of energy price trends. This will enable the implementation of timely and appropriate policies that support businesses in sustaining production and operations, crucial for a highly open economy directly affected by international trade fluctuations.
Furthermore, stimulating consumer demand is crucial for the domestic market. This involves enhancing the effectiveness of market stabilization programs, organizing focused promotions, and hosting larger-scale trade and service events to attract both residents and tourists. Concurrently, accelerating the implementation and disbursement of public investment capital is essential, with a focus on key infrastructure projects. These projects are expected to generate spillover effects, attract social investment, and stimulate economic growth. As of 23/3, total public investment disbursed reached over 13,500 billion VND, representing 9.2% of the capital plan assigned by the Prime Minister.
Vien Thong
