On 11/3, Reuters, citing analysis from TankerTrackers.com, reported that Iran had exported approximately 13,7 million barrels of crude oil since Israel and the U.S. began attacks on the country on 28/2. Data firm Kpler estimated Iran's oil exports for the first 11 days of March were higher, at about 16,5 million barrels. This activity contrasts sharply with a broader regional downturn.

This continuation is noteworthy, as exports from other Gulf nations significantly declined over the past two weeks. In retaliation for the attacks by Israel and the U.S., Iran attacked vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and energy infrastructure across the Middle East. This nearly halted transit for non-Iranian ships through the route and led regional oil-producing countries to reduce their output.

Oil tankers in the waters near the Strait of Hormuz on 11/3. Photo: Reuters

Iran's sustained ability to export oil without any reported interceptions stands in stark contrast to the U.S. campaign in Venezuela last year. At that time, Washington imposed a blockade and seized vessels attempting to enter or exit Venezuelan waters.

Experts suggest the U.S. is exercising caution. "I am quite surprised because the U.S. previously seized Venezuela-linked vessels last December, yet did not deploy a similar operation before the onset of this conflict," stated David Tannenbaum, a director at consulting firm Blackstone Compliance Services.

Matias Togni, an oil and shipping analyst at Next Barrel, suggested that the U.S. is concerned that intercepting Iran-linked oil tankers could trigger more attacks on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. James Lightbourn, founder of Cavalier Shipping, commented that as long as Iran can move its ships through the area, it will keep the Strait of Hormuz somewhat open. "If the U.S. seizes oil tankers, Iran could completely close the strait," Lightbourn said.

Data from TankerTrackers.com and Kpler shows Iran's crude oil exports from 28/2 to 11/3 were equivalent to 1,1-1,5 million barrels per day. Last year, the country's average exports reached 1,69 million barrels per day, according to Kpler.

Export rates could increase in the coming days. Satellite imagery analyzed by TankerTrackers.com shows many supertankers are still loading at Kharg Island, Iran's oil export hub. Before the conflict erupted, Iran had increased exports to about 2,17 million barrels per day in February. Since 28/2, six crude oil tankers have departed Iran, according to analysis by Kpler and Lloyd’s List Intelligence. Two liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) carriers also left the country on 7/3 after loading, Reuters previously reported. Another analysis indicated that at least 11 million barrels of crude oil were transported from Iran, with four supertankers carrying about 8 million barrels arriving in the waters around Singapore.

Ha Thu (according to Reuters)