Based on official statistics and industry sources regarding production, refining, and supply, Reuters calculated Russia's oil and gas revenue for December 2025 could reach only 410 billion ruble (USD 5.17 billion). This figure is half of the same period last year, partly due to current low oil prices and the appreciating ruble.

Previously, Russia recorded its lowest monthly oil and gas revenue in history at 405 billion ruble in August 2020. Oil prices at that time fell sharply due to the pandemic.

For the entire year 2025, oil and gas revenue could decrease by nearly 25% to 8.44 trillion ruble, lower than the Russian Ministry of Finance's forecast of 8.65 trillion ruble. The ministry had previously expected to collect 10.94 trillion ruble, but revised this down in October 2025 to reflect declining global oil prices driven by oversupply concerns.

A Rosneft oil field in Krasnoyarsk, Russia. *Photo: Reuters*

Oil and gas remain the primary cash source for the Kremlin, contributing 25% of the federal budget. However, Russia's budget has also been affected by a sharp increase in defense and security spending since the conflict with Ukraine began in February 2022.

Sergei Konygin, a senior analyst at Sinara Investment Bank (Russia), stated that the projected 1.6 trillion ruble budget deficit in December 2025 will be offset by government bonds. However, the situation next year could be more challenging.

"Next year poses a significant challenge for the budget, as the budget plan is based on an oil price of USD 59 per barrel and a ruble exchange rate of 92 RUB per USD," he noted.

Last month, the price of Russian oil used for tax calculations decreased by 16.4% compared to October 2025, settling at USD 44.8 per barrel. Concurrently, the ruble strengthened to 80.3 RUB per USD.

Konygin predicts that early next year, Russian officials will need to revise the budget plan, potentially using the National Welfare Fund to cover deficits if oil prices remain below assumptions.

Over the past few years, Ukraine and its Western allies have repeatedly stated their desire to tighten Russia's oil revenue streams. This aims to pressure the world's second-largest oil exporter to end the conflict in Ukraine.

In October 2025, the US imposed sanctions on Russia's two largest oil corporations, Rosneft and Lukoil, freezing all their assets in the country. Washington also prohibited all US companies from trading with these two corporations. However, earlier this month, the US partially eased sanctions to minimize the impact on suppliers and consumers.

Ha Thu (according to Reuters)