The latest report from United Overseas Bank (UOB) has increased Vietnam's 2026 growth forecast. This follows the General Statistics Office (GSO) announcing that Vietnam's 2025 GDP reached 8,02%, the second highest growth rate in the 2011-2025 period, surpassing UOB's previous forecast of 7,7%.
According to the Singaporean bank, the economy's performance over the past three months continued to allay concerns about trade volatility. Robust manufacturing and exports drove Q4 GDP growth to 8,46%, its strongest since 2009, excluding the Covid-impacted year of 2021.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) confidence remained strong, with disbursed FDI surging by 9% to reach a record 27,6 billion USD in 2025. Overall, UOB assessed Vietnam's economy as outperforming, even amid pressure from US tariffs.
"With 8% growth for the year, Vietnam enters 2026 on a solid footing", the report stated. UOB's forecast is currently among the most optimistic compared to other international organizations. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, Asian Development Bank (ADB), and HSBC are all forecasting growth below 7%.
For 2026, Vietnam targets GDP growth of 10% or higher, alongside maintaining macroeconomic stability, controlling inflation, and ensuring the economy's major balances.
Despite the positive outlook, UOB highlighted potential pressure on exports and uncertainty regarding US tax policies as risks that could impede Vietnam's GDP growth trajectory in 2026.
"A potential scenario is that export orders could decrease as earlier frontloading demand weakens and higher prices affect US consumer purchasing power, especially in 2026", the report noted.
Last year, the Vietnamese Dong (VND) was the third-weakest currency in Asia, depreciating by 3,1% against the US dollar (USD). This factor, combined with the positive GDP outlook and existing inflationary pressures (averaging 3,2% in 2025), suggests the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) is likely to maintain its refinancing rate at 4,5% throughout 2026, according to UOB.
Vien Thong
