The Trump administration faces a potential refund of over 133.5 billion USD in tariffs to importers if the Supreme Court rules against its use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose duties. This figure, updated by US Customs and Border Protection on 14/12, was reported by Reuters.

On 9/11, Supreme Court judges heard arguments regarding these tariffs and signaled skepticism about their legality. President Trump was the first president to invoke the IEEPA for imposing tariffs, justifying the move by citing US trade imbalances, declining manufacturing capacity, and the need to halt cross-border drug flows.

According to an announcement on 6/1, the Supreme Court is expected to issue a ruling this friday. It did not specify which particular lawsuit the decision would address. Typically, the court takes several months to issue a ruling after arguments, but the Trump administration had requested an expedited process for this case.

US President Donald Trump in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia on 26/10/2025. *Photo: AP*

Online betting platforms estimate President Trump has only a 23-30% chance of winning these cases, a decrease from approximately 40% before the arguments were heard.

Despite the potential for a ruling against the tariffs, it remains unclear whether the Supreme Court would directly order refunds if the tariffs are deemed illegal. The court might instead defer this decision to lower courts or the government to resolve.

Earlier this week, President Trump stated on social media that the US would soon collect 600 billion USD in import tariffs. However, data from the US Treasury Department indicates that total US Customs duties collected in fiscal year 2025, which ended on 30/9, reached a record 195 billion USD. Monthly collections in recent months have fluctuated around 30 billion USD.

Ha Thu (according to Reuters)