The stock market began the new year with enthusiasm, as the VN-Index surged 36 points to close at 1,860 points, its highest level in one month. This extended a four-session winning streak, driven by continuous capital inflows into large-cap stocks. Ahead of the session, analytical groups had anticipated a strong post-Tet rally. Historical data from the past 10 years shows a 90% probability of the VN-Index rising in the first post-Tet session, with an 80% chance of further gains in the subsequent month.
Experts attribute the market's strong performance to two key factors. First, robust business results from the Q4/2025 financial reporting season, which concluded in late January, boosted investor confidence. Second, solid macroeconomic fundamentals provided underlying support for the rally. The year 2026 marks the beginning of Vietnam's ambitious goal to achieve over 10% annual GDP growth.
In the first trading session, positive sentiment dominated the TP HCM exchange, with 280 stocks increasing, about four times the number of declining issues. The large-cap basket also demonstrated significant strength, as 26 stocks closed above their reference prices, while only three declined.
Oil and gas stocks had the most positive impact on the VN-Index. Leading companies in this sector, including PLX, GAS, BSR, and PVD, all hit their ceiling prices and closed the session with no sellers. Excess buy volumes for these stocks ranged from several hundred thousand to over 5 million units. The banking sector also showed enthusiasm, with most stocks gaining over 1% compared to their reference levels. Shares of state-owned banks BIDV and Vietcombank led the gains, rising 4,7% and 3,1% respectively. TPB, SHB, VPB, EIB, and LPB followed.
The securities sector performed similarly, with TCBS shares leading a 5,7% increase, followed by VCK, ORS, and VPX. Real estate, however, was one of the few sectors to show divergence. While small-cap stocks like CII, HDC, and HQX aligned with the index's positive trend, KDH, NLG, and SCR closed in the red.
Beyond the point gains, liquidity on the TP HCM exchange improved by over 10% compared to pre-Tet levels, reaching more than 23.500 billion dong. FPT topped the matched order value chart with over 2.100 billion dong, followed by VIX and HPG, each around 1.000 billion dong.
The most pessimistic signal of the session was foreign investors resuming net selling, offloading over 1.100 billion dong. They disbursed approximately 2.900 billion dong while selling over 4.000 billion dong. FPT was a primary target for foreign selling, with over 12 million shares offloaded. Despite this, analysts at Tien Phong Securities Company (TPS) believe the pre-Tet recovery could evolve into a new uptrend, targeting the 1.980-2.000 point range. Correction sessions two weeks ago helped the market rebalance, creating room for new capital inflows and strengthening prospects for healthier growth.
Phuong Dong
