According to financial data aggregator IndexQ, Vietnam's stock market ranked 10th globally for growth in 2025, accumulating 517 points, equivalent to 40,87% compared to the beginning of the year.
South Korea led in performance with a 75% increase. Most other top-ranked markets were in Europe and the Americas, such as Chile, Czech Republic, Spain, Poland, and Austria, with gains of about 45-56%.
This marks the third consecutive year of gains for Vietnam's benchmark index, also recording its best increase since 2017. The index closed the final trading session at 1.784 points, far exceeding forecasts from most securities firms and investment funds.
Earlier in the year, most expected the index to fluctuate around 1.300-1.700 points, representing a 3-34% increase from the end of last year. However, the index temporarily dropped below 1.100 points in early April due to unexpected news regarding US President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs, triggering a sell-off. The market later recovered, with the index soaring to a record 1.805 points by late December, primarily driven by the Vingroup conglomerate.
Heading into the new year, domestic analytical teams are optimistic about the VN-Index's growth prospects. Most predict the index will trade between 1.800-2.300 points. The market has moved beyond a recovery phase after a sharp decline four years ago, transitioning to a breakthrough stage following its potential upgrade.
According to VNDirect Securities Company, the base-case scenario for the VN-Index this year is 2.099 points. This projection is based on an estimated 18% earnings growth for listed companies and an average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15,6 times over the past 10 years. VNDirect expects liquidity to increase by 25%, reaching 36.400 billion dong per session, fueled by new capital inflows from foreign investors as the stock market approaches an upgrade.
"Compared to regional markets, Vietnam's stock market stands out due to a combination of high growth rates and reasonable valuations, indicating the market is still in the early stages of a new growth cycle," wrote the SSI Research analysis team.
With a more cautious view, an expert from MB Securities Company believes the market will maintain positive momentum and aim for a record 1.860 points in the next six months, thanks to early-year positive sentiment and the possibility of an official upgrade after the March review. However, in the second half of the year, the VN-Index could retreat to 1.670-1.750 points as new interest rate levels will impact market liquidity, coupled with capital shifting towards production and business activities.
Phuong Dong
