According to data from the Customs Department, Vietnam exported 35,600 tons of pepper as of the end of February, generating over 231 million USD. This represents a 30.8% increase in volume and 25.6% in value compared to the same period last year.
This growth is supported by several factors in the global market. Analysts forecast a 15-20% decrease in global pepper supply this year due to declining inventories in major producing countries, while demand is clearly recovering. Notably, the US is expected to increase imports as tariffs fall to 0%, and China is increasing purchases due to low inventory levels.
Domestic pepper prices, while slightly lower than before, remain high at approximately 136,000 VND per kilogram (on 22/3), helping farmers maintain healthy profit margins. The average export price also recovered in February, reaching 6,609 USD per ton. However, the combined average price for the first two months still decreased by 4% year-on-year, settling at 6,499 USD per ton.
The US remains Vietnam's largest pepper customer, accounting for over 25% of total exports, valued at nearly 66 million USD. Germany ranked second with export turnover of nearly 15 million USD.
Thailand rose to third place with a sudden increase in imports. In the first two months of the year, exports to this market reached 1,940 tons, valued at over 14 million USD. This marks a 125% increase in volume and 104% in value compared to the same period last year.
This trend is not coincidental. Data from the Thai Ministry of Commerce shows that the country's pepper imports have steadily increased in recent years, from 5,990 tons in 2020 to 9,652 tons in 2025, representing an average annual growth rate of about 10%.
Currently, Vietnam nearly dominates the supply in the Thai market, accounting for up to 99.63% of total imports. Demand for spices in the food and tourism industries is rapidly increasing, while domestic production is limited and costs are high, prompting Thailand to boost imports.
Beyond consumption, the Thai market also tends to increase reserves amidst shrinking global supply, thereby continuing to drive import demand in the coming period.
Therefore, Vietnamese businesses have the opportunity to expand their market share in fast-growing markets like Thailand, in addition to traditional markets such as the US and Europe.
Despite the ongoing harvest, market supply has not significantly increased. Farmers are holding back sales, anticipating further price increases. This keeps short-term supply limited, contributing to sustained high price levels. With supply not significantly improving, the pepper market is forecast to continue its high price trend in the medium and long term.
Thi Ha
