In a bustling Delhi slum during the 1970s, Parul Gayen lived in a space filled with the sounds of children. It was common for her mother to be one of six children, or for her maternal grandfather to come from a family with eleven siblings. Even Swapan, the man she married at age 16, came from a family of six brothers.

Now at age 58, in her small, one-bedroom apartment, Gayen realizes times have completely changed. Of her three adult children, only two decided to have children, and both intentionally stopped at one child. Gayen sighs, contemplating her only grandchild growing up in solitude, according to the Economist.

Gayen's family story is a microcosm of a historic turning point in India. For decades, the message of "population explosion" was continuously ingrained in the minds of citizens by the government and aid organizations. In the 1960s, propaganda slogans like "two or three children are enough" appeared frequently on school walls as a deterrent for parents.

By the 1970s, control measures became stricter as authorities directly oversaw sterilization campaigns targeting millions of poor young people. However, recent revisions to Indian textbooks present a completely opposite message. The books no longer warn about the dangers of having too many children; instead, they sound an alarm about the risks of having too few.

This shift stems from the astonishing decline in the birth rate within the world's most populous country. In 1950, India's population was 360 million, with women averaging six children. By 2023, with a population of 1,45 billion, India officially surpassed China to become the planet's most populous nation, accounting for one-sixth of humanity. However, the country's total fertility rate (TFR) has now dropped to 1,9, below the replacement level of 2,1 needed to maintain long-term population stability.

Notably, the birth rates in some Indian states are now on par with wealthy European countries. Specifically, statistics show that the industrialized southern state of Tamil Nadu and the eastern state of West Bengal both recorded a TFR of 1,3, equivalent to Finland. Maharashtra, home to the financial hub Mumbai, reached 1,4, the same as Norway.

Even poorer and more populous northern states like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh show a similar downward trend. This decline has led to a 20% reduction in national births compared to the 2001 peak, forcing Tamil Nadu alone to close 1,200 schools last year due to a lack of students.

According to research by demographers, the biggest turning point driving this trend is the improvement in girls' education since the 1990s, which has given women greater autonomy and a stronger voice within families. This reality contrasts sharply with regions lacking formal education in Africa, such as Niger, northern Nigeria, and Chad, where birth rates have remained largely unchanged.

Furthermore, the deteriorating quality of the public school system has pushed parents into an "educational arms race" for private schooling to secure their children's future.

Statistics indicate that the percentage of Indian children attending fee-paying private schools significantly increased from 31,7% in 2015 to 38,8% in 2025. In this context, having fewer children is the only way for families to keep up. Economic pressure is so intense that even the poorest households actively choose to have one child to dedicate all resources to tuition fees.

This demographic trajectory is pushing India and many middle-income countries like Brazil, Iran, and Thailand into a shared global scenario. Global research published in the prestigious medical journal The Lancet predicts that by 2050, 76% of countries and territories will experience birth rates below replacement level, making it impossible to solve labor shortages through immigration.

Modern forecasting models suggest India's population will peak at approximately 1,6 billion people within the next 20 years before entering a continuous decline, falling below one billion people by the end of this century. Asia's total population is projected to peak in the 2040s, and the global population peak is likely to arrive sooner than expected, in the 2050s.

For India specifically, this crisis is particularly challenging because it faces an aging population at a much lower per capita income compared to other nations at a similar stage of development.

Illustration: Niussp

Nevertheless, Indian demographers believe that urging people to have more children is futile. According to Dyson, the country is undergoing clear social changes, such as a significant reduction in the gender gap and women's lives increasingly resembling those of men. Therefore, demographic trends are unlikely to be reversed.

For states grappling with declining labor forces, such as Tamil Nadu and Kerala, the critical question is: Who will fill the population gap? Developed countries unable to reverse declining birth rates are focusing on policies for healthy, active aging. They extend retirement ages by five to seven years and enhance productivity among older workers.

Demographers state that if India intends to do something similar, it needs to prioritize policies that increase healthy life expectancy through medical screening and robust social welfare for workers, ensuring they age actively. In many countries, the elderly are now considered a potential "silver generation". Srinivas Goli, a professor of demography at the International Institute for Population Sciences, noted that India has ample opportunities until 2047 to boost its economy, create jobs for its population, and allocate resources for the elderly.

Binh Minh (According to CNN, BBC, Economist)