Singapore's demographic situation has reached an alarming level. Despite persistent efforts and numerous incentive policies introduced by the government to improve the birth rate, couples remain largely unenthusiastic about starting large families or even having children, Bloomberg noted.

This challenge is not unique to Singapore but a common reality across most developed nations. Extremely low birth rates are an inevitable consequence of rapid development and rising living standards. South Korea, Japan, and China all record birth rates below 2,1, the replacement level demographers consider necessary for a society to maintain a stable population size.

Singapore's leaders are increasingly concerned about the declining population trend. While official figures for 2025 are still being compiled, the likelihood of improvement over the previous year is very low. Speaking at a conference last week, Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong admitted it is difficult to offer optimistic signals. Meanwhile, another minister at the event described the current birth rate as a catastrophe, after the host sarcastically remarked that people seem more interested in raising pets than welcoming newborns.

The Merlion, an iconic symbol at Marina Bay, Singapore. Photo: AFP

Hopes for a rebound in Singapore's 2024 birth rate have vanished as the index remains below 1. This marks an alarming drop from 60 years ago, when the island nation gained independence and the average birth rate was 4,5. The prolonged low birth rate forces the government to address complex issues regarding the use of immigrant labor, as well as accelerating the application of robotics and artificial intelligence. With the rapid aging of its population, the government has also warned that Singapore will soon become a "super-aged" society.

Unlike Japan, South Korea, or China, Singapore actively seeks external human resources, focusing on strategic sectors such as technology, engineering, and finance. In many respects, the island nation holds a greater advantage than its neighbors in resolving demographic challenges. However, this strategy has its limitations. Since the electoral changes of 2011, the incumbent government has affirmed the principle that population growth through immigration must not affect employment opportunities for local citizens.

Should governments give up on the population problem? Even if measures like increased paternity leave, cash bonuses, or tax incentives cannot significantly reverse the birth rate, it does not mean these policies are ineffective. They still serve as positive social welfare policies. Moreover, the prospect of larger families reappearing remains feasible, as just a few decades ago, global officials were concerned about planetary overpopulation.

Do not expect miracles from financial aid packages, as they are insufficient to offset the profound shift in the current generation's mindset about family. In their new book "Demographic Toxicity," researchers warn that while value systems can change, the demographic decline is immense. Nations already experiencing population decline will continue to record negative growth for many decades before efforts to reverse the trend yield results. Therefore, efforts to revive a falling birth rate demand extreme patience.

A shrinking population does not mean Asia's leading economies are at a dead end. In many ways, their achievements remain remarkable. GDP consistently stays high, and in Singapore's case, per capita GDP has reached record levels. This prosperity stems from post-World War II efforts to leverage global trade liberalization. However, a leading export position is not the sole cause of current demographic challenges. Previously, family planning was crucial for national security and financial stability, as nations needed not only to survive but to prosper.

From efforts to "tighten" population size, governments are now shifting towards pro-natalist policies, though implementation is less aggressive than before. In the past, some countries fiercely promoted sterilization, such as China with its one-child policy, which disadvantaged "illegitimate" children by denying them identity papers, a major barrier to education, healthcare, and job opportunities. Now, in an effort to increase family size, China even taxes condoms. Although old barriers have been removed, the population problem remains unsolved.

Urging citizens to help improve the birth rate is one thing, but catastrophic predictions about the future are certainly not a fundamental solution. In 2023, a South Korean minister shocked the public by warning that the nation faced the risk of extinction. Similarly, reports on China's current economic slowdown always come with grim updates on population decline. In this regard, the media focus in 2025 will not be on US tariffs or record trade surpluses, but on the most severe annual population decline since the time of Mao Zedong. This situation is the inevitable result of a long accumulation process.

The issue is not just about adjusting government policies. Reality shows that women today aspire to career development, while the cost of raising children and housing prices are increasingly expensive. Furthermore, men still do not share family responsibilities adequately. In a study published last year, Nobel laureate in economics Claudia Goldin urged men to become reliable fathers, rather than irresponsible "part-time dads."

The Singaporean government is right to believe that birth rate figures are unlikely to improve soon. This situation is not the result of a sudden event but the culmination of a long-formed trajectory. Solutions to this problem certainly cannot yield results overnight, if they even exist.

Binh Minh (According to Bloomberg)