The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting reported that the typhoon's eye was located in the northeastern area of the South China Sea, moving west-northwest at a speed of 20-25 km/h.

By 10 p.m. on 23/9, the typhoon maintained its intensity at category 16-17, with gusts exceeding category 17.

At 10 p.m. on 24/9, the typhoon is projected to make landfall south of Guangzhou (China), with wind speeds decreasing to category 12-13 and gusts reaching category 16. It is then expected to shift its course west-southwest, making landfall in the provinces from Quang Ninh to Ninh Binh by 10 p.m. on 25/9, with its intensity reduced to category 8 and gusts at category 10.

Projected path and impact zone of Super Typhoon Ragasa. Photo: NCHMF

Due to the typhoon's influence, the northern area of the South China Sea is experiencing strong winds of category 8-9, which will increase to category 10-14. Near the typhoon's eye, winds will reach category 15-17 with gusts exceeding category 17, and waves will be over 10 m high.

Starting 24/9, wind speeds in the Gulf of Tonkin will gradually increase to category 6-7, later escalating to category 8-10. Near the typhoon's center, winds will be category 11-12 with gusts of category 15, and waves will reach 4-6 m. Vessels operating in this area are at risk of significant impact.

According to the Japan Meteorological Agency, the typhoon currently has sustained winds of 198 km/h, which will decrease to 126 km/h as it passes over the Leizhou Peninsula. The agency predicts that the typhoon will track slightly north of Leizhou, moving deeper into mainland China, causing its intensity to decrease rapidly. The Hong Kong Observatory also forecasts wind speeds of around 90 km/h upon reaching Quang Ninh.

On the afternoon of 22/9, at the National Steering Committee for Natural Disaster Prevention and Control meeting, Mai Van Khiem, Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, stated that the super typhoon will enter a rapid weakening phase starting 24/9 due to the influence of the continental high-pressure system and land friction over China. As it crosses the Leizhou Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Tonkin, the typhoon will weaken to category 11-12, with gusts of category 14. Inland areas from Quang Ninh to Thanh Hoa may experience winds of category 9-10, with gusts of category 14.

Super typhoon Ragasa originated from a tropical depression on the evening of 18/9 and intensified nine categories in just four days. The Northwest Pacific in 2024 has already witnessed three super typhoons: Yagi, Gaemi, and Krathon. Yagi, which made landfall in Vietnam, caused strong winds, landslides, flash floods, and widespread flooding, resulting in 318 deaths, 26 missing persons, and nearly 84,000 billion VND in damages.

Forecasts predict a higher than average number of typhoons and tropical depressions in the South China Sea from October to December, with over 4 storms expected, and nearly 2 potentially making direct landfall.

Gia Chinh