At 7 p.m., the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting reported that the super typhoon was located approximately 350 km east of Luzon Island, with maximum sustained winds of 221 km/h, a category 16-17 storm. The typhoon is moving northwest at a speed of 15-20 km/h. By 7 p.m. tomorrow, it is expected to be about 120 km from Luzon Island, with sustained winds of category 17 and gusts exceeding category 17.

By 7 p.m. on 23/9, the super typhoon is projected to be in the northern part of the South China Sea, with maximum sustained winds of category 16-17 and gusts exceeding category 17. A day later, the typhoon is expected to reach the coastal waters of Guangdong province (China), decreasing to category 14-15, with gusts still exceeding category 17, and showing a weakening trend.

Due to the typhoon's influence, starting 22/9, the eastern sea area of the northern South China Sea will experience increasing winds, reaching category 8-9, then rising to category 10-14. The area near the super typhoon's center will face category 15-17 winds, with gusts exceeding category 17, and waves higher than 10 m. Vessels operating in this dangerous area are all at risk.

Two potential paths for the super typhoon

Hoang Phuc Lam, deputy director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, said the typhoon will be strongest on 22-23/9. The Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts it could reach 195 km/h (category 16), with gusts exceeding 17. China predicts it could reach 223 km/h (above category 17), with gusts exceeding 17, while Hong Kong predicts 240 km/h (above category 17).

There are two possible scenarios for the typhoon's movement. First, on 24/9, upon reaching the waters south of Guangdong province (China), due to the impact of terrain friction, the typhoon will weaken and, upon entering the Gulf of Tonkin, will further decrease by 2-4 categories.

Second, in a less favorable scenario, the typhoon enters the South China Sea and moves primarily westward. A lower trajectory would mean less weakening, resulting in a higher impact from strong winds and large waves in the Gulf of Tonkin. In this scenario, the northern coast, from Thanh Hoa to Hue, will experience very strong winds and heavy rain.

Projected path of typhoon Ragasa, evening of 21/9. Photo: NCHMF

Projected path of typhoon Ragasa, evening of 21/9. Photo: NCHMF

In addition, according to Lam, a mass of early-season cold air is currently moving down from the north. The interaction of this cold air with the typhoon in the coming days will complicate the typhoon's trajectory and intensity, leading to significant divergence in long-range forecasts (beyond three days).

"The two scenarios mentioned above differ by only 50-100 km to the north or south, but the typhoon's intensity when it approaches the Vietnamese coast will vary greatly, as will the resulting impact. Therefore, continuous updates to the forecasts are necessary based on observational data and further analysis," Lam noted.

Forming from a tropical depression on 19/9, typhoon Ragasa has intensified by 8 categories in two days, becoming a super typhoon. Tomorrow afternoon, the National Steering Committee for Natural Disaster Prevention and Control will meet with relevant agencies to develop response plans.

Typhoon wind categories. Graphic: Hoang Khanh

Typhoon wind categories. Graphic: Hoang Khanh

Since the beginning of the year, the South China Sea has experienced 8 typhoons and two tropical depressions. The most recent was typhoon Mitag, which made landfall in China yesterday without directly affecting Vietnam. Typhoon Tapah did not directly impact Vietnam, but its circulation caused heavy rain and landslides in some northern mountainous provinces.

The western North Pacific has seen three super typhoons (maximum sustained winds of 201 km/h or more, category 16) in 2024: Yagi, Gaemi, and Krathon. Super typhoon Yagi, which made landfall in Vietnam, caused numerous natural disasters, including strong winds, landslides, flash floods, and widespread flooding. Yagi also resulted in 318 deaths, 26 missing persons, and nearly 84,000 billion VND in economic damage to Vietnam.

From October to December, the number of typhoons and tropical depressions is forecast to be higher than the multi-year average (more than 4 storms on average, with nearly two making landfall).

Gia Chinh