According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, at 7 p.m. on 17/9, the tropical depression northwest of Luzon Island (Philippines) had maximum sustained winds of 61 km/h, level 7, with gusts reaching level 9. It was moving northwest at a speed of 15-20 km/h.

The depression is predicted to enter the South China Sea tonight and subsequently intensify into a typhoon. By 7 p.m. tomorrow, the typhoon's center is expected to be over the northeastern waters of the North South China Sea, with wind speeds reaching level 8 and gusts two levels higher. By 7 p.m. on 19/9, the typhoon is projected to be south of Guangdong province (China), with wind speeds of level 8-9 and gusts reaching level 11.

The Japan Meteorological Agency estimates the typhoon will peak at 72 km/h, while the Hong Kong Observatory suggests it could reach 105 km/h before making landfall in Guangdong. Both international meteorological agencies agree that the typhoon will move inland into China and weaken, rather than following the coast towards Hainan Island as predicted yesterday.

Projected path of the tropical depression. Photo: NCHMF

Due to the influence of the tropical depression, the northeastern waters of the North South China Sea will experience increasing winds of level 6-7, with gusts up to level 9. Near the typhoon's center, winds will reach level 8 with gusts up to level 10, and waves will be 2.5-4.5 m high. Vessels operating in this area risk encountering thunderstorms, waterspouts, strong winds, and high waves.

Since the beginning of the year, the South China Sea has seen seven typhoons and two tropical depressions. Most recently, Typhoon Tapah, while not directly impacting Vietnam, brought rain and landslides to some northern mountainous provinces. Before that, Typhoon Nongfa made landfall in the central provinces on 30/8 with level 8 winds, isolating several mountainous areas in Ha Tinh, Quang Tri, and Nghe An provinces.

Meteorological agencies predict a higher than average number of typhoons and tropical depressions in the South China Sea from October to December 2025 (averaging over 4, with nearly 2 making landfall).

Gia Chinh