The United Nations Tourism Organization (UN Tourism) on 17/9 adjusted its global international tourist growth forecast from 3-4% down to 1-2%. UN Tourism announced the previous growth forecast in January. This revised outlook follows data from the first half of the year indicating a decelerating growth momentum, especially in Quarter II.
UN Tourism's report recorded approximately 690 million international tourist arrivals in the first six months of 2026, an increase of about 3 million (0,4%) compared to the same period last year. International arrivals grew by 2% in Quarter I, but then saw a 1% decline in Quarter II compared to 2025. June alone experienced a 3% drop in arrivals, signaling a less positive trend towards the end of the first half of the year.
The conflict directly impacted the Middle East, which experienced a 22% decrease in international arrivals during the first six months of the year, making it the only region to report a decline in the report.
Other regions continued to show growth. Africa led with a 4% increase, followed by Europe at 3% and the Americas at 2%. In the Asia-Pacific region, international arrivals rose by 1% year-on-year, though this figure remains 11% lower than 2019 levels.
UN Tourism Secretary-General Shaikha Al Nuwais observed that the latest data indicates the tourism sector faces pressure but is still finding ways to maintain operations and move forward.
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International tourists experience kite flying in Khanh Hoa. Photo: Bui Toan |
"Tourism continues to grow, but this momentum remains fragile," stated Shaikha Al Nuwais. She added that the situation in the Middle East has impacted many destinations beyond the immediate region. In a connected world, destinations must build resilience early, rather than waiting for crises to unfold.
UN Tourism stated that the revised growth outlook depends on the duration of the conflict, its impact on oil prices, and general inflation. These factors largely influence international tourist forecasts for this year.
The report forecasts that high prices and uncertainties will prompt tourists to carefully weigh value for money. Many may opt for destinations closer to home or shift to domestic travel.
Mai Phuong (According to Xinhua, UN Tourism)
