The Republican Party faces a grim outlook ahead of the congressional midterm elections in November, where they risk losing their House majority. Many Republican lawmakers hoped President Donald Trump would guide them through this challenge, but they have received only vague strategies from the White House.

Despite the campaign entering a critical phase, Republicans and the party's super political action committees (PACs) are unsure how the president plans to utilize campaign funds, as he has yet to approve a spending plan.

Republican donors are funneling money into costly primary elections in Texas and Georgia because President Trump has not endorsed anyone. In Louisiana, he even endorsed a challenger to an incumbent Republican senator.

Individuals who have discussed these obstacles with President Trump report that he sometimes appears indifferent and unenthusiastic about spending plans or candidate endorsements.

President Donald Trump at the White House on 9/2. *Photo: AP*

For much of last year, the White House remained an "oasis of optimism." President Trump's team argued that the Republican Party was in a better position than at the same point in his first term, citing data such as approval ratings, poll results, and voter registration numbers.

However, the Democratic Party does not need a "blue wave" as large as in 2018 to gain control of the House, where Republicans hold only a minimal majority and are defending 14 undecided seats.

Compounding the issue, the president's declining approval ratings and Democratic victories in special elections are dimming Republican prospects for the crucial upcoming elections.

Most Republicans are unwilling to criticize Trump publicly. However, according to sources familiar with the matter, the party's internal mood is "on tenterhooks" due to the president and his associates showing no urgency.

"Every time I talk on the phone, he asks, 'How's the race going?' then quotes poll numbers to me, so I know he's following it closely," said Republican Senator John Cornyn, who is running to defend his Senate seat in Texas.

However, Cornyn has yet to receive an endorsement from President Trump, which is his biggest concern. "Only one person can make that decision, and we cannot wait indefinitely," he stated.

The Texas primary election next month is a focal point of concern for Senate Republicans. Strategists assess that Cornyn's strongest opponent, state Attorney General Ken Paxton, would be weaker against a Democratic opponent in the subsequent midterm election, according to a memo from the National Republican Campaign Committee.

Sources indicate that if Paxton becomes the party's nominee, Republicans would need to spend an additional 100 million USD to help him retain the Senate seat representing Texas, a state where advertising costs currently reach 8 million USD weekly.

"Texas cannot be taken for granted," the memo stated, also presenting internal poll results showing Cornyn leading Democratic candidates, while Paxton is lagging behind.

An online survey conducted by the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston from 20/1 to 31/1 and released on 9/2 showed Paxton leading Cornyn by 38% to 31%.

During a presentation to Senate Republicans last week, Republican Senate Committee Chairman Tim Scott stated that a recent Fox News poll showed Democrats leading them by 6 points in House races. This could put all 9 Senate battleground states in contention. He also noted that Democratic candidates are raising more funds for competitive races in Georgia, North Carolina, and Ohio.

Senate Republicans were somewhat encouraged on 1/2 when Trump announced his endorsement of John E. Sununu in the party's New Hampshire primary, despite persistent lobbying efforts from Senate Majority Leader, Republican Senator John Thune. Although Sununu had previously criticized President Trump, he is currently leading in polls. Republican leaders consider him the strongest candidate to reclaim the seat that Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen will vacate upon her retirement.

However, efforts to secure Trump's endorsement for Cornyn remain stalled because the senator has not established a clear lead in polls, even though allies have poured 50 million USD into his advertising campaign.

Early voting will begin on 17/2, before the Republican primary election takes place on 3/3 in Texas. If no candidate secures a majority of votes, the top two vote-getters will proceed to a runoff election on 26/5.

President Trump reignited hopes of his intervention in the race on 1/2, stating that he was considering this "very seriously." However, he has yet to take any action to substantiate his statement.

"I've had many discussions about why I believe endorsing John Cornyn makes the most sense," Thune said last week. "I don't have inside information about what that decision will be or when it will happen."

According to two sources familiar with the ongoing tensions, Republican senators, including Thune, are disgruntled by President Trump's treatment of incumbent senators within the party. Senator Thom Tillis from North Carolina declined to seek re-election in this battleground state after clashing with Trump over cuts to Medicaid in the government spending package and the 2025 tax cuts.

Last month, President Trump endorsed an opponent against Republican Senator Bill Cassidy in Louisiana, a White House official stated. This was a consequence of Cassidy having voted to impeach President Trump in his Senate trial 5 years ago for allegedly inciting the Capitol riot on 6/1/2021.

Senator John Cornyn at the Capitol in Washington in 1/2025. *Photo: AP*

"I truly think the Senate Leadership Fund publicly supporting Cornyn and Cassidy, while President Trump remains silent or opposes them, is a serious issue," Senator Tillis said, referring to the primary super PAC supporting Republican senators. "Republican money is being funneled into fighting each other, which is absurd on the eve of an election that already presents numerous disadvantages."

In the House, the White House's efforts to protect its majority through redrawing electoral maps in Texas, North Carolina, and Missouri are unlikely to yield additional seats for Republicans, as Democrats are undertaking similar actions in California, Maryland, and Virginia.

The White House still hopes to gain more seats from the new electoral map in Florida after Republican Governor Ron DeSantis announced a special legislative session for the state in April. DeSantis stated his desire to wait until then, hoping a new Supreme Court ruling would alter the landscape of 19 House districts across the southern part of the state.

MAGA Inc., Trump's super PAC, ended 2025 with 304 million USD in reserve funds. However, what perplexes Republicans is that the PAC has kept its spending plans private from allies. A source close to the White House indicated that the president is likely to approve spending in tranches, while retaining some funds to build influence in future elections and cover legal fees.

"Thanks to President Trump, MAGA Inc. will have sufficient resources to support candidates who back the 'America First' agenda to secure borders, keep streets safe, boost the economy, and make life easier for all Americans," spokesperson Alex Pfeiffer emphasized.

Despite their unease, some Republican lawmakers continue to defend the president to maintain his support and prevent a gloomy atmosphere from spreading.

"It's only February, and there's still time for many other activities, but I'm pleased to have strong support from the president and his administration," stated Senator Jon Husted from Ohio.

Vu Hoang (According to Washington Post, AFP, Reuters)