Russia launched its forces across the border to attack Ukraine on 24/2/2022, igniting Europe's largest conflict since World War II. Moscow's initial "blitzkrieg" plan has stretched into four years, causing profound suffering for civilians and trauma for many soldiers on both sides, while reshaping the post-Cold War global security order.

Firefighters at a residential building damaged by Russian missile and drone attacks in Kyiv, Ukraine, on 22/2. Photo: Reuters

Over the past four years, hundreds of thousands of soldiers from both nations have died on the battlefield. Ukrainian civilians have endured relentless Russian airstrikes, leading to power and water outages. Simultaneously, Russia's economy has been heavily impacted by unprecedented Western sanctions and Ukraine's long-range strikes.

Casualties

International observers estimate that the Russia-Ukraine conflict has resulted in approximately 2 million military casualties over the past four years.

Casualty figures, which include those killed, wounded, or rendered unable to fight, vary significantly. Both Russia and Ukraine release numbers that inflate enemy losses while minimizing their own. However, these conflicting figures still reveal the horrific scale of the war.

The General Staff of Ukraine reports that about 418,000 Russian soldiers were killed or wounded in 2025, bringing Russia's total casualties in the war to over 1.25 million.

Last month, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), based in Washington, US, also estimated that Russia had suffered 1.2 million casualties, with at least 325,000 killed, from the start of the conflict until December 2025. Ukraine estimated that Russia incurred an additional 31,680 casualties in January 2026.

"These numbers are horrific. No major power has suffered anywhere near that many casualties or fatalities in any war since World War II," CSIS stated in its report. Russia has not commented on this figure and does not disclose specific military casualty data.

Early this month, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that 55,000 Ukrainian soldiers had died after four years of conflict. However, CSIS believes the actual number is much higher, estimating that the Ukrainian military has sustained 600,000 casualties, including approximately 140,000 soldiers killed.

Ukraine believes that the Russian death rate on the front line is increasing to a point where their current volunteer recruitment methods cannot stably maintain troop numbers deployed to the battlefield. CSIS agrees that Russian casualty rates have continuously risen throughout the conflict.

In addition to military casualties, Ukraine has suffered heavy civilian losses.

According to the United Nations Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU), 15,168 Ukrainian civilians have died and 41,534 have been injured after four years of conflict. The HRMMU also believes that the war is becoming increasingly deadly and dangerous for the populace.

The open-source project Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) reported that at least 2,919 Ukrainian civilians died and 17,775 were injured in 2025, primarily due to drone attacks from Russia and military operations in Russian-controlled areas.

Beyond soldier and civilian casualties, Ukraine has lost about one-quarter of its population compared to its pre-conflict level of 42 million people. The Ukrainian government estimated in 2023 that approximately 5 million of its citizens were living in Russian-controlled areas.

Conversely, according to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, about 5.9 million Ukrainians have left the country, with 5.4 million going to Europe. Ukraine faces the risk of permanently losing this demographic, as many of them do not intend to return home.

The rate of Ukraine's population decline after the conflict with Russia began in 2022. Graphic: CNN

Kyiv also accuses Moscow of relocating thousands of children from territories they control in Ukraine to Russia for upbringing and education as Russians. Yale University School of Medicine estimates that more than 19,000 Ukrainian children have been moved in this manner. Ukraine states that about 1,238 children have returned from Russian territory.

Russia, meanwhile, asserts that its officials always obtain consent from the parents of these children in Ukraine and that they consistently act in the children's best interests.

Territory

At its peak in March 2022, Russia controlled 26% of Ukrainian territory, according to geolocation data from the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank. These areas included the Crimea peninsula, which Russia annexed in 2014, along with most of the Luhansk and Donetsk provinces in eastern Ukraine, where pro-Russian separatist forces had been fighting the Ukrainian army since 2014.

The following month, Ukraine repelled Russia from a number of northern cities such as Kyiv, Kharkiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv, reducing Russia's control to 20% of Ukraine's area.

Territories controlled by Russia in Ukraine as of February 2026. Graphic: CBC

In August and September 2022, Oleksandr Syrskyi, then commander of the Ukrainian ground forces, led a counteroffensive that pushed Russia back east of the Oskil river in the Kharkiv region of northern Ukraine. Russia also voluntarily withdrew its troops east of the Dnipro river in the Kherson region of southern Ukraine, leaving Moscow with control over only 17.8% of the territory.

Over the past three years, the front lines have changed little. Russian forces have made small advances but have suffered major losses to increase their controlled area to 19.3%, equivalent to about 116,000 square kilometers.

Economy

Russia's military spending surged from under 66 billion USD in 2021 to 102 billion USD in 2022, then to 109 billion USD in 2023, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). By 2024, Russia's defense spending continued to rise sharply to 149 billion USD.

Estimates for Russia's defense spending in 2025 are inconsistent. According to Janis Kluge, an expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, this figure reached 142 billion USD in the first nine months alone. If calculated for the entire year, Russia's military expenditure would exceed the 149 billion USD spent in 2024.

Damaged oto at the scene of a Russian drone attack in Odesa, Ukraine, on 13/2. Photo: Reuters

However, according to Craig Kennedy, an economist at the Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies at Harvard University, Russia's actual defense spending last year tended to decrease by a total of 15%. This was due to an uncontrolled budget deficit leading to spending cuts in QIV, alongside a decline in bank loans for the defense industry.

According to documents obtained by Reuters, Moscow may continue to cut defense spending by at least 7% in 2026.

Data from SIPRI shows that, similar to Russia, Ukraine's defense spending also soared after the conflict erupted, from 6.9 billion USD in 2021 to 41 billion USD in the first year of the war, maintaining a level of 65 billion USD for both 2023 and 2024. Ukraine's 2025 defense budget was adjusted upward in October last year to a record 71 billion USD.

This funding is provided by Ukraine's allies, primarily the European Union (EU) and the US, totaling over 300 billion USD in military and financial aid to Ukraine since 2022.

After President Donald Trump took office in January 2025, the US cut 99% of its aid, shifting the financial burden to Europe.

However, according to data from the Kiel Institute, total aid to Ukraine remained stable after the US withdrawal, thanks to Europe increasing its contributions by about two-thirds. Last year, Europe provided approximately 70 billion USD in military and financial aid to Ukraine, while US aid decreased to just 0.4 billion USD.

Russia has incurred another financial loss: half of its central bank's gold and foreign exchange reserves, equivalent to about 300 billion USD, are frozen in Western financial institutions.

These assets have been blocked, meaning Russia cannot access or profit from them. In May 2024, the EU decided to transfer these profits to Ukraine, allocating 90% for military needs and 10% for reconstruction efforts.

The EU has also frozen an additional 33 billion USD in private assets belonging to Russian individuals on the sanctions list.

The war has entered its fifth year with no signs of an imminent end, despite negotiation efforts mediated by the US. Peace talks are stalled due to several key differences, such as the future of Ukrainian territories currently controlled by Russia and the issue of post-conflict security guarantees for Kyiv.

Vu Hoang (According to Al Jazeera, AFP, Reuters)