The increasing height and size of cars is a proven reality, but larger dimensions bring serious consequences, according to a new study. If current growth trends continue until 2040, cities could lose parking spaces, vulnerable road users may face increased risks, and drivers could ultimately pay more to operate their vehicles.

A new report from Europe's Transport & Environment (T&E) and Clean Cities organizations examines "car bloat," the continuous expansion of vehicle dimensions across Europe. The study reveals that new cars sold increase by an average of 11,9 mm in length and 5 mm in height each year. Previous T&E research showed that width and hood height also increased by approximately 5 mm annually.

A Mercedes SUV parked in front of a small Toyota car on a street in Berlin, Germany. Photo: IMAGO.

A Mercedes SUV parked in front of a small Toyota car on a street in Berlin, Germany. Photo: IMAGO.

This trend, which began in 2000, marks 25 years of steady growth. This expansion has continued despite the shrinking size of families purchasing these vehicles.

The report compares two potential future scenarios. In the first, automakers continue to follow current market trends, with large vehicles and SUVs accounting for an increasing share of sales. In the second, policymakers encourage a trend the researchers call "right-sizing," gradually returning the average car size to 2010–2015 levels.

Far-reaching consequences

Researchers estimate that if car dimensions continue to expand, the repercussions will spread across many sectors of society, not just a single aspect. By 2040, cities could lose 8,5-14% of on-street parking space. According to the Guardian, London, UK, and Berlin, Germany, alone are projected to lose about 100,000 parking spaces each. While this might not be a major concern in some areas, it presents a significant problem in densely populated urban centers.

Traffic safety is another major focus. T&E cites previous studies that link higher hoods to more severe injuries for pedestrians and cyclists. Based on these findings, researchers estimate that if current trends persist, vulnerable road user fatalities could increase by approximately 2,570 people between now and 2040 compared to the "right-sizing" scenario. The report also predicts a higher risk for child pedestrians, although these calculations are partly based on US research.

Energy consumption also plays a critical role. Larger cars are often heavier and consume more energy, regardless of whether they are gasoline-powered or electric. T&E estimates that by 2040, Europe's electric vehicle fleet will require an additional 22,5 TWh of electricity annually if current trends continue, equivalent to the output of about 1,500 onshore wind turbines. The report also forecasts an increase in oil imports by over 100 million barrels during the same period, as internal combustion engine vehicles remain in circulation.

Recommendations

The proposed solutions may be considered stringent by some. The report advocates for: an 850 mm hood height cap, a 1,920 mm width limit, size-based vehicle taxes, parking fees calculated by volume or size, and regulatory incentives exclusively for smaller electric vehicles under 4,200 mm in length.

Whether these ideas gain acceptance is another matter entirely. Over the past two decades, consumers have "voted with their wallets" in favor of SUVs and crossovers. However, large vehicles, pickups, and SUVs yield higher profits and are often less constrained by stringent safety and fuel economy standards than smaller cars. This suggests that the real challenge may not be in designing smaller cars, but in convincing automakers to produce them again.

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