Martin Izaguirre Salgado still keeps a memento from his time working on a liquefied natural gas (LNG) carrier two years ago. While passing through the Red Sea, four missiles exploded very close to his ship, sending metal fragments onto the deck. "I still have some of the debris at home", Salgado said.

For commercial sailors like Salgado, US President Donald Trump will find it difficult to persuade them to traverse the Strait of Hormuz at this time. Trump has promised to provide insurance and naval escorts for ships to continue their movement. However, Iran's threats to attack any vessel in the region make these promises of support less convincing.

"As long as they are launching missiles or using unmanned aerial vehicles to attack commercial ships, the feeling of insecurity will remain", Salgado told CNN. He currently works on a gas carrier.

The ship Salgado is working on is currently anchored in Iraq. Photo: Martin Izaguirre Salgado

The ship Salgado is working on is currently anchored in Iraq. Photo: Martin Izaguirre Salgado

On 4/3, no oil tankers passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Normally, more than 60 ships, transporting about 20% of the global oil supply, pass through here daily. However, for more than a week, this waterway has been almost paralyzed. Hundreds of ships, including Salgado's, are stranded in the area.

Major shipping companies such as Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have stopped accepting most cargo shipments to Persian Gulf countries. Since the conflict erupted in late february, marine insurance companies have also canceled war risk insurance for carriers.

Disruption to the global supply chain poses an increasing risk, leading to higher costs for businesses and consumers. The near-frozen Hormuz shipping route caused crude oil prices on the morning of 9/3 to exceed 110 USD a barrel – the highest since 7/2022.

Gene Seroka, director of the Port of Los Angeles, stated that as long as the conflict continues, no shipping company is willing to take the risk. "With many years of experience in the industry, I find the promise of escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz currently difficult to implement. There is no reason for companies to put sailors at greater risk and become targets at sea", he said.

Following discussions with shipping industry leaders, Seroka said only a ceasefire could get commercial ships operating again.

Location of the Strait of Hormuz. Graphic: Guardian

Location of the Strait of Hormuz. Graphic: Guardian

A senior US administration official told CNN that there is "no specific timeline" for deploying naval escorts yet. However, they are working to implement this as soon as possible. "Today you don't want to send large oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, but that could change in the near future", the official said.

The US administration is also not overly concerned about rising oil and gas prices, even though this has pushed average gasoline prices there to their highest level during Trump's current term. "The important thing is that this is a temporary conflict. The world is not at risk of oil or energy shortages due to this conflict, but we will experience short-term price volatility", the official stated.

In an interview with Fox News on 8/3, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright announced that the US would soon ensure the normal flow of oil, gas, fertilizers, and goods from the Gulf region through the Strait of Hormuz. Accordingly, Washington would "strike hard in the coming days" to neutralize Iran's capacity to attack oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.

Sanne Manders, president of logistics company Flexport, said businesses' biggest concern is the safety of their crew. Additionally, they do not want to put valuable cargo ships at risk, even with insurance.

"Companies want to ensure their ships are safe, because they are very expensive, worth hundreds of millions of USD. They will not gamble with those assets just for a commercial transaction", Manders said.

Furthermore, analysts doubt that the navy has enough ships to escort dozens of commercial vessels through here daily. "Naval escorts could help mitigate the threat. However, protecting all oil tankers operating in the area is unrealistic, as that would require a very large number of warships and military assets", explained Jakob Larsen, director of security at the Danish Shipping Association BIMCO.

Conflict in the Middle East disrupts global energy export chains. Source: Reuters

Conflict in the Middle East disrupts global energy export chains. Source: Reuters

During the previous Iran-Iraq war, the US military escorted oil tankers from Gulf countries, said Helima Croft, a former CIA expert. However, that solution is difficult to apply now. "At that time, we were not a direct belligerent. Now, we are a central figure in the conflict, not just playing an escort role", she explained.

In the short term, shipping companies also face rising fuel prices. MSC, the world's largest container shipping company, announced a fuel surcharge for shipments at least until april. This cost will likely be passed on to businesses and ultimately consumers.

Moreover, larger problems could arise if ships continue to be stranded. One concern is that the conflict could disrupt the entire global supply chain, similar to the peak of the pandemic.

"The longer the conflict drags on, the higher the likelihood of port congestion. Especially in Asia, ports are already quite full. That affects global shipping", Manders said, adding that ships bound for the Persian Gulf have to divert elsewhere.

Gulf countries also face disrupted imports. This is particularly important as six Arab nations: Oman, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait, import about 85% of their food.

Salgado's ship has been anchored off Iraq, about 740 km from the Strait of Hormuz, for nearly two weeks. They are still waiting to receive cargo before heading to Bangladesh. His contract was initially scheduled to end on 7/3. He hopes he can return home to Spain soon.

"Our feeling right now is that we are stuck and don't know when we can leave the ship", he said.

Ha Thu (according to CNN, Reuters, Fox News)