Beijing's new five-year plan (2026-2030) sets a 17% reduction target for carbon intensity, a measure of CO2 emissions per unit of gross domestic product (GDP), Reuters reported on 5/3. Notably, the plan does not include a target for reducing total emissions.

The opening session of the National People's Congress (NPC) at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, on 5/3. Photo: Reuters

Lauri Myllyvirta, co-founder of the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), described China's carbon intensity target as "alarmingly loose." He noted that based on China's GDP growth targets, the nation's total emissions would rise by 3-6% over the next five years. This contrasts with Beijing's commitment under the Paris Climate Agreement to reduce total emissions by 65% by 2030 compared to 2005 levels. Meeting that pledge would require a 23% emissions cut in the next five years, according to CREA's earlier calculations.

Analysts expressed little enthusiasm for Beijing's cautious five-year target. This comes as China has sought to fill a vacuum in global climate and clean energy leadership since Washington withdrew from the Paris Agreement last year. However, China only achieved a 12% reduction in carbon intensity during its previous five-year plan (2021-2025), significantly missing its 18% target. Experts suggest this past failure and the new modest decarbonization plan are unlikely to encourage other nations to set ambitious emission reduction targets.

Nis Grunberg, an analyst at the Mercator Institute for China Studies in Germany, stated that China is quickly becoming the largest emitter in history. "Therefore, China's arguments that developed economies should contribute more are gradually losing their persuasiveness," he added.

According to a report by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China's top state policy planner, the nation anticipates reducing carbon intensity by approximately 3,8% this year. They expect nationwide emissions to peak before 2030.

However, Yao Zhe, a policy advisor for Greenpeace East Asia in Beijing, believes the new carbon intensity target will be challenging to achieve. She pointed to the continuous increase in energy demand from China's manufacturing sector. Last year, China's carbon emissions decreased by 0,3% due to reductions in the transport, power, cement, and metallurgy sectors, but it remains uncertain whether emissions will rise again before peaking.

In 9/2025, President Xi Jinping announced at the United Nations General Assembly that China aims to reduce greenhouse gases by 7-10% by 2035 compared to peak levels. Additionally, Beijing aims to expand its wind and solar power capacity sixfold by 2035, compared to 2020 levels. Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Center (part of the Asia Society Policy Institute in the US), noted that while the nation missed some short-term climate targets, it is on track to exceed its renewable energy commitments.

Beijing plans to replace 30 million tons of coal with renewable energy over five years but has not set limits on overall coal consumption. They anticipate implementing minimum quotas for renewable energy consumption while phasing out outdated coal-fired power plants.

Bao Bao (according to Reuters)