The week ending 4/4 saw global spot gold prices rise 3%, surpassing the USD 4,600 per ounce mark. However, the precious metal faced resistance in the first two trading sessions of April, failing to break the USD 4,800 per ounce resistance level.
In Kitco's weekly survey of 15 experts, the majority of analysts, 8 individuals, predicted gold prices would trade sideways. Four experts anticipated an upward movement for the precious metal, while the remaining three forecast a decline.
From the perspective of individual investors, optimism is spreading. Among 61 online survey respondents, approximately 59% of traders forecast an increase in gold prices this week, 21% predicted a decrease, while the rest expected the precious metal to remain stable.
Some experts anticipate significant price swings. Darin Newsom, senior market analyst at Barchart, for instance, believes gold prices could trade sideways within a wide range, spanning from USD 4,128 to USD 5,666 per ounce. He highlighted that such a broad range, up to USD 1,500, signals substantial uncertainty, suggesting the market's direction will hinge on future social media posts from the US President.
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Gold bars displayed at GoldSilver Central's office in Singapore. Photo: Reuters |
Kevin Grady, President of Phoenix Futures and Options, shared this view, suggesting that recent gold price volatility primarily reflects market expectations regarding the Iran conflict. He cited the market's immediate reversal when Donald Trump mentioned the possibility of an attack, leading to falling stocks, rising energy prices, and a sharp decline in gold.
According to Grady, amid a rapid news flow and low liquidity before the holiday, investors should maintain a neutral position rather than "betting" on short-term fluctuations. He also noted that open interest in the gold market is low, with most positions coming from passive commodity index funds.
With a more positive outlook, James Stanley, senior strategist at Forex, predicted an increase in gold prices. He believes the long-term trend continues to support the precious metal, even if the stock market might establish new lows. "I don't want to bet against gold's significant uptrend; instead, I will look for buying opportunities during price corrections," James Stanley stated.
Adrian Day, President of Adrian Day Asset Management, also forecast an upward trend for gold prices. He explained that Turkey's sale of nearly 60 tons of gold contributed to the sharp price decline in March, and this information helped reduce market uncertainty. In the long term, as conflicts de-escalate, monetary factors will once again drive prices, especially if central banks ease policies due to economic weakening.
Meanwhile, analysts from CPM Group advised investors to stay out of the market in the short term, forecasting gold prices to fluctuate within the USD 4,100-4,850 per ounce range.
Due to increased volatility and high uncertainty, the group has shifted to a "wait and see" recommendation, deeming it appropriate to await the establishment of a reasonable bottom. "While numerous factors support gold prices in the medium and long term, the market currently faces significant volatility and uncertainty," the analysis group stated.
Trong Hieu
