In its strategy report for the second half of 2026, VNDirect's analysis department stated that the securities industry's P/B valuation is currently around 1,75 times, which is lower than its 5-year average of 1,9 times. This situation persists despite a positive industry profit outlook, supported by improved market liquidity compared to the same period last year and high outstanding margin lending balances.

Data from VNDirect Securities shows that leading companies such as FPTS, MBS, SSI, BSC, and Vietcap are all trading at P/B levels below their 5-year average. Consequently, the analysis department believes there is substantial upside potential for the securities sector, especially given the favorable conditions expected in the latter half of the year.

National Securities (NSI) shares a similar view, asserting that the industry's valuation is low after a period of strong stock price increases in 2024-2025. However, NSI anticipates that opportunities for price appreciation will be selective, favoring only companies with advantages in capital, large brokerage market share, and developed investment banking segments.

P/B ratios of some securities companies at the end of June. Photo: VNDirect

P/B ratios of some securities companies at the end of June. Photo: VNDirect

VNDirect Securities expects the securities group to benefit from improved market liquidity this year, which will help firms grow their brokerage operations. The company forecasts that the average daily transaction value could reach 34.000 billion dong in the second half of 2026, an increase of about 16% compared to the same period.

New capital inflows may emerge after Vietnam's stock market is officially upgraded by FTSE Russell in September, along with expectations of meeting MSCI criteria in 2027. Additionally, a wave of initial public offerings (IPOs) and the new KRX trading system could attract investor capital.

NSI also projects that the market could attract 0,8-4 billion USD in passive capital, leading to 5-10 billion USD in total foreign capital over the next two years following the market upgrade. As a result, NSI anticipates that the transaction value by individual investors in 2026 could increase by 15-20%, while the proportion of foreign transactions improves to 15% (compared to 10,6% in the same period).

Major securities companies like SSI, TCBS, VPBankS, and those with a high institutional brokerage market share such as Vietcap and HSC, could benefit from a 20-30% increase in brokerage revenue and margin lending.

VNDirect assesses that brokerage segment profit margins will improve in the second half of 2026 as liquidity improves, though differentiation will occur. Companies with strong institutional client bases and large brokerage market shares, focusing on service quality rather than fee competition, will benefit more from their ability to maintain pricing power. In contrast, smaller firms may continue to face pressure from fee competition to expand market share.

Securities trading at Kafi exchange, 4/2026. Photo: Quynh Tran

Securities trading at Kafi exchange, 4/2026. Photo: Quynh Tran

As liquidity improves, the margin lending segment of companies will also benefit and become a driving force for the securities group in the second half of the year, according to NSI. NSI data indicates that in Q I, brokerage revenue reached 4.883 billion dong, while lending operations generated 11.136 billion dong. This demonstrates that the industry's revenue no longer relies primarily on transaction fees, as it did in 2020–2021.

At the end of Q I, NSI data shows that total market margin debt exceeded 444.000 billion dong, an increase of approximately 3% from the previous quarter and 51% year-on-year. However, VNDirect's data indicates that only a few companies, such as HSC and KBSV, have a margin lending-to-equity ratio close to 200%, nearing the regulatory cap. Thus, the industry still has room for further lending.

Furthermore, NSI believes the securities group will benefit from the wave of IPOs and state-owned enterprise divestments. The company estimates that between 2026–2028, total capital raised from potential deals could exceed 40 billion USD. The pipeline of companies preparing to list spans various sectors, including retail, technology, healthcare, finance, and infrastructure.

NSI asserts that leading securities firms like SSI, Vietcap, and HSC could directly benefit from their experience in executing large capital-raising deals, their distribution capabilities for institutional investors, and their high corporate advisory market share. Securities companies within banking ecosystems, such as TCBS, VPBankS, and MBS, also hold an advantage in accessing corporate clients from their parent banks, thereby increasing their opportunities to participate in IPOs and private placements in the coming period.

However, NSI cautions that currently high interest rates pose a significant risk to the securities group. The company reported that the industry's average cost of capital in Q I edged up to 6,7%, higher than the 6,1% increase recorded in Q IV/2025.

The profitability of margin lending operations faces pressure as sustained high interest rates increase the cost of capital for securities companies. Simultaneously, following substantial capital increases in 2025–2026, intense competition for market share has limited the ability to pass increased capital costs onto clients through higher lending rates. This has caused margin segment profit margins to continue narrowing recently.

Trong Hieu