The issue of a low birth rate in Ho Chi Minh City, a megacity of over 14 million residents, was highlighted at a training session on the 2025 Population Law, organized by the Ho Chi Minh City Party Committee's Propaganda and Mass Mobilization Department and the Ho Chi Minh City Population Sub-Department on 9/4. The total fertility rate in 2025 is projected to reach only 1,51 children per woman, significantly below the replacement level of 2,1. For over 20 years, the city's birth rate has consistently been the lowest in the country, leading to consequences such as rapid population aging, labor shortages, and impacts on social welfare.

According to a representative from the Ho Chi Minh City Population Sub-Department, the pressures of living costs, housing, and raising children lead many young people to marry later, have fewer children, or choose not to have any. Simultaneously, the city's healthcare, education, and living environment infrastructure do not yet meet the expectations for raising children well.

Additionally, changing life perspectives, rising educational attainment, and increasing infertility and abortion rates also contribute to the low birth rate. In 2025, the average age for first marriage in Ho Chi Minh City was 29,8, higher than the national average of 27,3.

Professor Doctor Nguyen Thien Nhan, former Secretary of the Ho Chi Minh City Party Committee, stated that childbearing in the 21st century is no longer a private matter but is linked to the nation's destiny. He believes that the core reason young urban residents are hesitant to start families and have children is financial pressure, particularly the costs of housing, education, and healthcare.

"Their actions are a realistic response, as they believe that if they cannot raise children properly, they should not have them", he said, adding that this view contrasts sharply with the traditional belief that "children will find a way to thrive on their own".

He warned that inadequate conditions for raising children could lead to long-term consequences, similar to what South Korea and Japan have experienced, where populations sharply decline without breakthrough changes in employment policies and living conditions. A shrinking working-age population was a factor in Japan's economy stagnating for 30 years (1996-2025) after 33 years of remarkable growth.

The gap between the minimum wage and a living wage presents a major barrier. The minimum wage only ensures an individual's basic living standard, while the decision to have and raise children requires sufficient income to cover long-term costs. Surveys in Ho Chi Minh City indicate that many low-income workers either do not want to have children or must postpone parenthood plans.

Newborn care at Tu Du Hospital. *Photo: Hospital provided*

To address this issue, Professor Nhan proposed ensuring fundamental conditions such as housing, childcare services for infants from six months old, health insurance, a sufficient income to live on, social insurance, and social consensus on viewing childbearing as a crucial factor for the nation's future.

Ho Chi Minh City is currently implementing various solutions aimed at improving the birth rate through a combination of support policies and communication campaigns. The city has enacted policies to encourage families to have two children, such as offering 5 million dong in support for women who have two children before the age of 35. It is also rolling out a comprehensive healthcare project for the 2025-2030 period.

Concurrently, proposals focus on reducing the burden on young families through support for housing, taxes, income, maternity leave, childcare services, and child-rearing costs. In the long term, the core solution is to create a sufficiently good living environment for residents to feel secure in having and raising children, while also attracting immigrant labor to compensate for potential labor shortages.

Le Phuong