Yahoo News reported on 26/12 that while Tokyo's leaders consistently warn of a demographic crisis as an existential threat and allocate massive subsidies, Kazuhisa Arakawa, a leading researcher on single societies, offers a different perspective. According to him, this decline does not stem from apathy or changing values among the populace, but is "the inevitable cost of prosperity."

"Japan is not alone; it is merely the first domino to fall in a global effect where a nation's wealth is inversely proportional to the number of children born," Arakawa noted.

In Japan, the birth rate has sharply declined from 1,45 in 2015 to an alarming 1,15 in 2024. However, this figure pales in comparison to the demographic collapse occurring across the rest of Asia, where South Korea, Taiwan (China), Singapore, and most recently Thailand, have all fallen below the 1,0 threshold – a level at which population replacement becomes impossible. Even welfare "paradises" like Finland or Sweden in the Nordic region, or Latin America, known for its large family culture, are not immune to this trend.

Illustration: iStock

Demographic history shows a strong correlation between child mortality rates and birth rates. When the risk of infant mortality drops below 10 per 1,000 population thanks to modern medicine, the need for "preventative births" to perpetuate family lines disappears, pushing birth rates below the replacement level of 2,0. In other words, when death is no longer a constant threat, people feel less pressure to have many children. This explains why Africa maintains a high birth rate, but a decline is unavoidable as healthcare systems on the continent improve.

Alongside healthcare, education – the foundation of civilization – has become another "adversary" to population growth, Arakawa commented. Data from the United Nations in 2023 shows that countries with an average of fewer than six years of schooling often have birth rates above 4,0. However, when this period extends beyond 12 years, the birth rate immediately drops below 1,5. In Japan, where young people spend an average of 16 years in education (including university), the door to the labor market opens later, pushing back the average age of marriage and childbearing into the 30s, a time when natural fertility begins to decline.

The consequences of widespread education are not limited to time; they also create complex psychological barriers in partner selection, particularly the trend of "hypergamy." Modern women, highly educated and financially independent, still tend to seek partners with higher status and income than their own. Meanwhile, men often need more time – typically until after 40 – to accumulate enough financial resources to meet these societal standards. As the supply of "qualified" men becomes scarce, women opt for a high-quality single life rather than compromise, creating an invisible barrier to marriage.

This contributes to marriage gradually transforming from a universal adult milestone into a "luxury privilege" for the upper class. Data indicates that birth rates are not declining among the wealthiest 20% or civil servants, but are plummeting among the middle class and small business employees. This illustrates how "marriage cost inflation" is excluding middle-income individuals from the game. As the standards for raising a child become increasingly expensive and elaborate, young people without sufficient financial means are forced to choose to forgo starting a family.

Ultimately, financial support packages from the government appear to be counterproductive. In Japan, despite the budget for family policies tripling since 2007, the number of newborns has still decreased by 30%. Instead of using the aid money to have more children, couples tend to funnel those resources into investing more in their existing children, driving up child-rearing costs even further.

When financial subsidies reach their limit and no longer prove effective, experts suggest that the solution to the population problem must shift towards deeper structural and societal mindset changes. Firstly, successful models from France and the Nordic countries show that the key lies in genuine gender equality, where men actively share the burden of family care. Additionally, increasing paternity leave is necessary to reduce pressure on women. Concurrently, the pressure of an "educational rat race" at all costs and the mindset of "perfect parenting" need to be dismantled, helping couples escape the psychological burden of dedicating all financial resources solely to raising one successful child.

From a macro perspective, instead of merely trying to stimulate births, countries are learning to adapt flexibly. Western nations compensate for labor shortages with immigration policies, while Japan opts for technological solutions with artificial intelligence and robots to maintain productivity.

"As long as childbearing is viewed as 'high risk, high cost, low benefit' and society demands too much from parents, birth rates will struggle to reverse, regardless of how much money the government provides," the expert concluded.

Binh Minh (According to Yahoo News)