The Population Forecast Report for the 2024-2074 period, recently released by the General Statistics Office (GSO), outlines three growth scenarios based on low, medium, and high birth rates. Under the medium scenario, with a birth rate of 1.85 children per woman, the average annual population growth rate will reach 0.66% over the next five years before gradually decreasing. Vietnam is projected to hit 0% growth by 2060, transitioning into a period of decline with negative values from 2061 onwards.

The situation becomes more concerning under the low birth rate scenario, which projects 1.45 children per woman. In this case, negative growth would begin as early as 2051, a decade sooner than the medium scenario. The rate of decline would be rapid and significant, resulting in an average population loss of 461,000 people per year by the end of the forecast period (2069-2074).

Conversely, if a high birth rate of 2.01 children is maintained, positive growth could continue until 2074, adding approximately 58,000 citizens annually. Corresponding to these three scenarios, Vietnam's population size would reach 103.9 million, 114.2 million, and 118.5 million people, respectively.

Students at Bui Van Moi primary school, Phuoc Long ward, 9/2025. Photo: Quynh Tran

Regardless of the trajectory, Vietnam is entering a phase of slow growth, moving towards stagnation or decline. A direct consequence of low birth rates is rapid population aging, which places heavy pressure on the social welfare system and poses a serious risk of labor shortages. Experts warn that the concern of the country falling into a "getting old before getting rich" trap becomes real if the population size is insufficient for sustainable development.

In reality, the trend of declining birth rates and a surge in the elderly population is a global issue, according to Pham Vu Hoang, Deputy Director of the Population Department, Ministry of Health. In 2025, Vietnamese women are having an average of 1.93 children, a slight increase from last year's record low, but still below the replacement level and showing significant regional disparities. Management agencies identify the biggest challenge as the structure and quality of the population in the context of prolonged low birth rates.

To address this, the population sector has set its focus from 2026 on encouraging every couple to have two children, viewing this as a practical act of patriotism. The new Population Law, expected to take effect from 7/2026, will empower families to decide the timing, number, and spacing of births based on their economic conditions and health.

The Ministry of Health is developing a policy to prioritize social housing for couples who have two children. This regulation is expected to be formalized when the Population Law takes effect from 7/2026, complementing the Ministry of Construction's existing priority criteria.

Le Nga