The latest warning about this demographic shift was issued in the "Vietnam Population Forecast Report 2024-2074," published by the General Statistics Office on 23/12. According to the statistical agency, Vietnam is currently in the most favorable years of its golden population structure, a phase that began in 2007 when the proportion of children (0-14 years old) was below 30% and the elderly (over 65 years old) was below 15%.

Until 2035, Vietnam is projected to maintain a robust workforce, with the proportion of people in working age (15-64 years old) remaining high, from 67,4% this year to 66,9% by the end of the cycle. During this time, the overall dependency ratio typically stays below 50%, meaning that for every two workers, there is one dependent, creating an optimal impetus for economic growth.

Elderly residents at Thi Nghe nursing home, Ho Chi Minh City, 2024. Photo: Quynh Tran

However, the situation will change in 2036 when the proportion of people over 65 years old reaches 15%, marking the official end of the golden population structure. After this milestone, the aging rate will accelerate rapidly. Forecast data indicates that while in 2024 there were approximately 60 elderly people for every 100 children, this number will surge to nearly 225 elderly people by 2074. The ratio will shift from two children per one elderly person currently to two children per 4 elderly people by the end of the forecast period, placing immense pressure on the social welfare system.

Professor Nguyen Dinh Cu, former Director of the Institute for Population and Social Issues at the National Economics University, likens the golden population structure to being "as precious as gold" because this opportunity arises only once in a nation's history and typically lasts 30-45 years. Vietnam has utilized 20 years and currently has about 15 years remaining. Professor Cu emphasizes that this is a crucial period for Vietnam to achieve an economic miracle, similar to what Japan or South Korea accomplished.

Facing the risk of "aging before affluence," experts believe that population aging will significantly impact the economic structure, necessitating changes from infrastructure design and the labor market to the healthcare system. To address this, the new Population Law, recently approved by the National Assembly, has shifted its focus from birth control to encouraging births and adapting to aging.

The new regulation grants couples autonomy over the timing and number of children based on their economic conditions, rather than previously encouraging one to two children. The State will provide financial support to women who have two children before 35 years old in low-birth-rate regions, while also prioritizing this group for purchasing or renting social housing. This practical policy aims to help families settle down early, reducing economic burdens so they can focus on raising their children.

Alongside measures to stimulate birth rates, the Law emphasizes the development of human resources for elderly care. Students specializing in gerontology will receive tuition fee exemptions and scholarships; healthcare workers in this field will also benefit from special remuneration mechanisms to attract talent to serve an aging society in the near future.

Le Nga