These figures are from the Vietnam Population Forecast Report 2024-2074, recently released by the General Statistics Office. The agency noted that the current demographic picture is "severely distorted," with the sex ratio at birth in 2024 reaching 111,4 boys for every 100 girls, far exceeding the natural biological norm (104-106). This disparity has already resulted in approximately 415,200 more men than women in the current marriageable age group.

Under the medium fertility scenario, the surplus of men will worsen year by year. By 2029, for every 100 men aged 20-39, there will be more than three surplus individuals. This figure will rise to 711,700 people by 2034, representing 4,9% of men in this age group. The peak is projected for 2049, with the highest disparity of approximately 1,3 million men at risk of not finding wives, corresponding to 8,7%.

Following this period, the sex disparity is expected to gradually narrow as the sex ratio at birth returns to a balanced level. However, the consequences of the imbalance from the first 30 years of the 21st century will persist, leaving Vietnam with a surplus of approximately 829,000 marriageable-age men by 2074.

Students at Hung Loi Primary School, Lam Thanh commune, Nghe An province, during a class. Photo: Duc Hung

Explaining the reasons, doctor Mai Xuan Phuong, former Deputy Director of the Communication - Education Department, General Department of Population, now the Population Department (Ministry of Health), pointed out that the deeply ingrained ideology of son preference, prevalent for thousands of years, still strongly influences society. Amid a record low birth rate of 1,91 children per woman, the pressure to "have a son to carry on the family line" compels many families to misuse medical technology. Techniques like imaging diagnostics and gene testing for fetal sex selection lead to an increase in abortion rates, directly exacerbating the imbalance.

The scarcity of women intensifies fierce competition among men seeking partners. This situation places women in a vulnerable position, facing higher risks of violence, sexual exploitation, and human trafficking. These social consequences compel policymakers to pay special attention when developing population strategies and protecting vulnerable groups.

To bring the sex ratio at birth below 109 boys per 100 girls by 2030, Mr. Phuong proposed a "three-pronged approach" comprising a strict legal framework, tight medical supervision, and communication campaigns to change perceptions. Grassroots monitoring systems need to provide early warnings at imbalance hotspots for timely intervention, while widespread advocacy aims to elevate the status of girls.

The Population Law, effective from 1/7/2026, strictly prohibits all forms of fetal sex selection. Individuals who inform or disclose fetal sex for the purpose of abortion will have their medical practice suspended. Annually, specialized agencies will publish statistical data to enable authorities at all levels to develop appropriate corrective measures.

Le Nga