The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting reported that at 1 PM today, a tropical depression was located east of Luzon Island, Philippines. It had maximum sustained winds of 61 km/h (level 6-7), gusts up to level 9, and was moving north-northwest at approximately 15 km/h.

Over the next 24 hours, the tropical depression is expected to strengthen into a typhoon. By 1 PM tomorrow, it will be located northeast of Luzon Island with sustained winds of level 8, gusts two levels higher, maintaining its course as it enters the South China Sea. This will be the 8th typhoon of the year.

Projected path of the tropical depression near the South China Sea at 1 PM on 16/9. Photo: NCHMF

By 1 PM on 18/9, the typhoon will be in the northern South China Sea with maximum sustained winds of level 8 and gusts of level 10. It will then shift its direction to west-northwest, moving at 15-20 km/h.

Simultaneously, a low-pressure area is active in the central South China Sea. Meteorological authorities predict this system will strengthen into a tropical depression today and tonight, but it is unlikely to become a typhoon.

The Japan Meteorological Agency predicts the tropical depression, after intensifying into a typhoon, will approach Hong Kong but not make landfall. Instead, it will change direction and move along the coast towards Hainan Island.

Due to the influence of the tropical depression, the northeastern part of the northern South China Sea will experience increasing winds of level 6, gusting to level 8. Near the typhoon's center, winds will reach levels 7-8 with gusts of level 10, and waves will be 2.5-4.5 m high. Vessels operating in these dangerous areas are likely to encounter thunderstorms, squalls, strong winds, and high waves.

Since the beginning of the year, the South China Sea has seen 7 typhoons and two tropical depressions. The most recent typhoon, Tapah, did not directly impact Vietnam, but its circulation brought rain to the northern mountainous provinces, causing landslides in some areas. Typhoon Nongfa made landfall in the central provinces on 30/8 with level 8 winds, isolating some mountainous areas in Ha Tinh, Quang Tri, and Nghe An provinces.

Meteorological authorities predict that, excluding the last days of September, from October to December 2025, the South China Sea will experience a higher than average number of typhoons and tropical depressions (the long-term average is more than 4, with nearly two making landfall).

Gia Chinh