The consulting firm McKinsey & Co. reported on 29/9 that approximately 11 million Americans, representing 6,5% of the current workforce, may need to transition to entirely different professions by 2035. This significant shift is primarily due to increasing automation and the widespread application of artificial intelligence (AI).

While automation could reduce labor demand by the equivalent of 36 million jobs by 2035 under a baseline scenario, growth in AI-related sectors and the broader economy is projected to create demand for 40 million jobs. Consequently, McKinsey's forecast suggests that AI could create more jobs than it eliminates over the next 9 years.

McKinsey stated that about 69% of affected workers could remain in their current roles, as growth within their industries is expected to offset the impact of automation. "The remaining 11 million people may need to transition to entirely different professions. The challenge of the coming decade lies in the ability to make career transitions, not in a shortage of jobs," the researchers wrote. The report also indicated that while the number of jobs in the US by 2035 could be higher than it is today, the overall labor force will shrink due to an aging population.

Technological innovation is expected to drive the largest and longest labor force transformation in US history, according to the report. Even without considering AI's impact, the US labor market is already undergoing a historic transition, as the Baby Boomer generation (born 1946-1964) retires, net immigration slows, and external shocks ripple through the economy.

The job market in the world's largest economy has been in a "low hire, low fire" state for two consecutive years, implying that employment opportunities are limited.

This trend was evident in the report released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on 29/9. In August, job openings – a key measure of labor demand – fell to a 5-month low. The voluntary quit rate, which measures worker confidence, remained near a 6-year low. Meanwhile, the number of layoffs decreased for the second consecutive month.

Ha Thu (via CNN)