Gold prices are poised for an upward trend next week, with a majority of experts and individual investors anticipating a rise above 5,000 USD. This optimism follows a week where global gold prices reached 4,966 USD on 6/2, marking an increase of over 200 USD and aligning with earlier expert predictions after a prior week's decline.

A Kitco survey involving 18 Wall Street analysts reveals that 67% expect gold prices to surpass 5,000 USD next week. Only two analysts, representing 11%, foresee a decrease, while the remainder anticipate sideways movement. Individual investors share a similar sentiment, with an online poll of 329 Main Street participants showing 64% (210 traders) predict a continued increase, 19% expect a fall, and the rest project a stable trend.

An employee places a 99,99% pure gold bar in an office at the Novosibirsk precious metals refining and production plant in Russia, 9/2023. *Photo: Reuters*

Adrian Day, chairman of Adrian Day Asset Management, projects short-term price fluctuations but maintains an overall upward trajectory. He states, "The main drivers for gold's continued ascent this year remain intact, and the sell-off in early February created new buying opportunities for investors." Rich Checkan, president and COO of Asset Strategies International, concurs, viewing current gold prices as a prime opportunity for new investments. He describes the market's previous sharp decline as a typical instance of profit-taking.

Marc Chandler, managing director at Bannockburn Global Forex, also favors a gold price increase next week, highlighting that closing above 5,000 USD is a crucial factor. He suggests the recent two-week correction could end if the precious metal exceeds 5,140 USD.

While the coming week is not particularly busy for economic data releases, certain information could still introduce market volatility. The most notable event is Japan's new government election on the evening of 8/2. This election has the potential to significantly impact the yen, global currency markets, and government bonds next week. Additionally, US inflation data, scheduled for release late next week, could also influence gold prices.

CPM Group, a US commodity market research firm, issued a buy recommendation on 6/2, setting an initial target price of 5,400 USD per ounce by 20/2, with a stop-loss at 4,800 USD. The firm anticipates continued strong volatility but an upward trend over the next one to two months. However, the possibility of deep corrections into the 4,000 USD range remains.

Conversely, Alex Kuptsikevich, senior market analyst at FxPro, suggests gold prices might face downward pressure next week. He argues that the significant volatility late last week left "psychological scars" on the market, despite a 550 USD recovery after the sharp decline. Kuptsikevich states, "We still lean towards a negative scenario, believing the three-year bull cycle has been broken." He also predicts substantial selling pressure if gold surpasses 5,000 USD.

By Trong Hieu