On june 19, global spot gold prices closed down 53 USD, settling at 4,154 USD an ounce. During the trading session, prices briefly touched 4,119 USD, their lowest point since june 11.

Over the week, prices dropped more than 100 USD, marking their third consecutive weekly decline. Earlier this week, the market saw an uptick following news of a US-Iran peace agreement. However, the precious metal reversed its gains in the final session, driven by the prospect of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) raising interest rates later this year.

Conversely, domestic gold bar prices saw a slight increase this morning. At 9:00 on june 20, Saigon Jewelry Company (SJC) listed gold bars at 144,32 - 147,2 million dong, reflecting a 500,000 dong rise in both buying and selling prices compared to yesterday's close.

Global gold prices reversed course during the week's final sessions. *Chart: Kitco*

"Gold prices risk falling below the 4,000 USD threshold, as the precious metal navigates a challenging environment. Expectations that the fed will maintain higher interest rates for an extended period will exert pressure on non-interest-bearing assets," said Nikos Tzabouras, a market analyst at Tradu.

Following its policy meeting on june 17, the fed announced it would keep interest rates unchanged. However, nine officials indicated a need for one rate hike this year. The CME FedWatch tool also projects a 70% probability of a US rate hike in september.

"Gold's trajectory hinges on developments in US-Iran negotiations, next week's US inflation data, and market expectations for the fed's upcoming policy," Tzabouras noted. Last week's data revealed US inflation in may was 4,2%, surpassing 4% for the first time since early 2023, largely due to rising energy prices.

On june 19, Switzerland announced that the next round of peace talks between the US and Iran would not proceed there as planned. US officials also confirmed that US Vice President JD Vance canceled his planned visit. Despite this, Israel and Hezbollah forces reached a ceasefire agreement effective june 19.

Goldman Sachs has lowered its gold price forecast for december to 4,900 USD, down from 5,400 USD previously. The bank remains optimistic about gold prices in the medium term but expresses caution regarding the precious metal's short-term depreciation risk.

By Ha Thu (Reuters)