As of 1/7, live hog prices nationwide continued to drop by 1,000-2,000 VND from the previous day, settling at 60,000-66,000 VND per kg. The Southern region recorded the lowest prices: Dong Thap and Ca Mau were at 60,000 VND, Tay Ninh, An Giang, Vinh Long, and Can Tho at 61,000 VND, while Dong Nai and TP HCM saw fluctuations between 60,000-62,000 VND per kg.

At Hoc Mon wholesale market, 4,740 pigs arrived. Grade one live hog prices were 64,000 VND per kg, and grade two were 59,000 VND, a 13-14% decrease from the early-year peak of 72,000-74,000 VND. Consequently, wholesale pork cuts also saw a reduction of 10,000-20,000 VND per kg, with grade one at 75,000 VND and grade two at 70,000 VND. Some wholesale processed items decreased by 6-8%, including pork ribs at 145,000 VND, pork belly at 118,000 VND, and pork shoulder at 110,000 VND per kg.

A vendor sells pork at Vinh Hoi apartment market (TP HCM). Photo: Thanh Nguyen

According to Mr. Doan, live hog prices decreased due to several contributing factors. Hot weather has slowed pork consumption, while supply remains stable. Disease threats among pig herds also lead many farmers to sell early to mitigate risks.

Additionally, intensified inspections by authorities on farming conditions, environment, and food safety have prompted some farms to sell their herds earlier instead of continuing to raise them, increasing short-term supply. While selling prices have fallen, input costs have risen. Mr. Doan stated that feed prices have increased multiple times since the beginning of the year, raising farming costs by approximately 300,000 VND per 100 kg of live hog. At current prices around 60,000 VND per kg, many farmers are incurring losses, forcing them to sell early to limit risks as prices continue to trend downward and disease threats persist.

Besides domestic supply, imported meat volumes have also increased. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, livestock imports reached 2.2 billion USD in the first five months of the year, a nearly 30% increase year-on-year. Specifically, meat and edible offal imports totaled over 910 million USD, up 26%. With domestic meat prices approximately 30-40% higher than many regional markets, imported supply continues to add competitive pressure to the domestic pork market.

Despite the plummeting live hog prices, consumers still cannot buy meat at lower costs. A survey at traditional markets including Xom Moi (An Hoi Dong ward), Ba Chieu (Gia Dinh ward), and Pham Van Hai (Tan Son Hoa ward) showed that pork ribs were still sold at 170,000-200,000 VND per kg, boneless pork belly at 150,000-170,000 VND, pork jowl at 220,000-240,000 VND, pork shoulder at 140,000-150,000 VND, and pork leg at 120,000-130,000 VND. These prices remained almost unchanged compared to when live hog prices peaked earlier in the year.

Ms. Hanh, a vendor at Xom Moi market, stated that while live hog prices have decreased, prices from slaughterhouses have not fallen proportionally. With fluctuating input costs, sellers are hesitant to adjust. She believes that retail prices might only decrease if live hog prices remain low for several consecutive days.

According to industry businesses, a pig typically passes through four to six stages from farm to consumer. This chain involves intermediaries such as traders, slaughterhouses, wholesale markets, and retailers or retail systems. Each stage incurs costs and profits, meaning the reduction in live hog prices is not immediately passed on to the end consumer. It is estimated that the costs and profits of these intermediate stages account for approximately 30-40% of the retail price. Therefore, market meat prices usually lag by about 7-10 days behind live hog price movements if a downward trend is sustained.

Mr. Doan commented that this situation has persisted for many years. Live hog prices at the farm fluctuate based on supply and demand, while consumer prices are affected by multiple distribution stages, leading to slower adjustments. "There were times when live hog prices were only about 60,000 VND per kg, but many retail cuts still sold for 200,000-250,000 VND per kg," he said. He predicts that live hog prices may face further downward pressure as the market enters July, a period when consumption demand typically decreases annually. However, it is difficult to forecast how much prices will drop.

Thi Ha