S&P Global's latest purchasing managers' index (PMI) results for December 2025 recorded 53 points. This was a slight decrease from 53,8 in november but remained above the 50-point threshold, indicating a strong improvement in the manufacturing sector's health.
The US-based data analytics firm reported that business conditions have improved over the past six months. Looking ahead, businesses are the most optimistic since 3/2024.
"Vietnam's manufacturing sector concluded a volatile year with a positive signal, as output and new orders continued to increase sharply, and business confidence reached a 21-month high," commented Andrew Harker, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence.
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Workers producing instant noodles at Colusa - Miliket Foodstuff Joint Stock Company in Thu Duc City, 3/2025. *Photo: Quynh Tran*
Last month marked eight consecutive months of manufacturing output growth. New orders increased for the fourth consecutive month, with some surveyed businesses reporting improved customer demand. The need for increased output encouraged companies to hire more staff, leading to a third consecutive month of employment growth.
For 2026, S&P Global Market Intelligence forecasts Vietnam's industrial output to increase by 6,7%. Overall, Andrew Harker assessed the manufacturing sector is starting in a positive position. He stated, "Manufacturers are optimistic about attracting new orders and can increase production capacity."
However, a short-term obstacle is supply shortages, which caused input cost inflation last month to reach a 3,5-year high. Andrew Harker added, "Hopefully, supply disruptions will begin to ease in the coming months, allowing companies to procure raw materials more easily."
In a recent analysis, Vu Binh Minh, Head of Capital and Money Market Business, Capital Markets and Securities Services at HSBC Vietnam, suggested that while developments in 2026 are difficult to predict, the PMI helps reveal encouraging prospects.
According to him, the cornerstone for future exports is maintaining a diversification strategy. Although the US remains a top export destination, Vietnam is accelerating efforts to pursue long-term trade opportunities. He assessed, "Vietnam has been and is signing a series of trade agreements, as well as upgrading relationships with nations, showing that the potential for trade diversification is significant."
Vien Thong
