China's population decreased by 3.39 million people to 1.405 billion, the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) announced on 19/1. This marks the fourth consecutive year of population shrinkage for the world's second most populous nation, a trend that began in 2022.

This situation stems from a widening gap between birth and death rates. In 2025, only 7.92 million children were born, a sharp decrease from 9.54 million in 2024. Conversely, the number of deaths rose from 10.93 million to 11.31 million people.

The birth rate has hit a record low of 5.63 per 1,000 people. Yi Fuxian, a demographer at the University of Wisconsin-Madison in the US, noted that the number of births in 2025 is comparable to that of 1738, when China's population was only about 150 million. In contrast, the death rate of 8.04 per 1,000 people is the highest since 1968.

This rapidly aging population structure places significant pressure on the world's second-largest economy, especially in efforts to boost domestic consumption and control public debt. NBS data indicates that the demographic over 60 years old currently accounts for approximately 23% of the total population. Experts forecast that by 2035, this group will reach 400 million people, equivalent to the combined populations of the US and Italy.

Hundreds of millions of people exiting the workforce are placing immense strain on pension funds. In response, Beijing has adjusted the retirement age: for men, it increased from 60 to 63, and for women, from 55 to 58.

The trend of reluctance to marry also directly impacts the demographic landscape. 2024 saw a record 20% drop in marriage rates, with just over 6.1 million couples registering compared to 7.68 million the previous year.

To reverse this trend, the Chinese government is working to undo the effects of its former one-child policy and promote "positive views on marriage and childbirth." A policy change in 5/2025, allowing couples to register their marriage anywhere instead of only in their place of residence, has shown initial positive signs. The number of marriage registrations in Q3/2025 increased by 22.5% compared to the same period, which demographers hope will provide a temporary boost to future birth rates.

China's population declined by 3.39 million people, marking the fourth consecutive year of decrease. Photo: AP

The wave of migration from rural to urban areas, where the cost of raising children is higher, has exacerbated demographic challenges. Policymakers have made population planning a central part of the national economic strategy. According to Reuters estimates, Beijing may need to spend up to 180 billion yuan (approximately 25.8 billion USD) this year to implement measures to stimulate fertility.

Key expenditures include national child subsidies (first implemented last year) and a commitment to "no out-of-pocket costs" for women throughout their pregnancy in 2026. All medical expenses, including in vitro fertilization (IVF), will be covered by insurance.

China currently has one of the world's lowest birth rates, at approximately one child per woman, which is significantly below the replacement level of 2.1. Similar situations are observed in other East Asian economies like South Korea and Singapore, with rates around 1.1. Projections indicate that by the end of this century, the number of women of reproductive age (15-49 years old, as defined by the United Nations) in China will decrease by more than two-thirds, falling to less than 100 million people.

Binh Minh (According to Reuters)