"Late marriage leads to delayed childbearing, fewer children, or even no children, causing a decline in the birth rate. A prolonged low birth rate will directly and profoundly impact population size and structure, leaving many consequences," Deputy Minister of Health Do Xuan Tuyen stated at the World Population Day commemoration on 11/7.
The average age for first marriage among Vietnamese youth is indeed increasing. In just 5 years, from 2019 to 2024, the average marriage age rose from 25,2 to 27,3, nearly double the increase observed over the preceding 20 years. Notably, Ho Chi Minh City records the highest average age for first marriage nationwide at 30,4. The Southeast region and Mekong Delta also show a trend of men frequently delaying marriage until after age 30.
Financial pressure, the need to focus on career development, or difficulty finding an ideal partner are key reasons young people hesitate to commit to marriage. A direct consequence is the national birth rate falling to 1,93 children per woman, below the necessary replacement level.
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Young people taking group wedding photos. Photo: Viet Anh |
Deputy Minister Tuyen warned that a sustained low birth rate will lead to a severe labor shortage and accelerate population aging. Projections indicate that within the next 50 years, the social structure will be inverted, with two children bearing the responsibility of caring for four elderly individuals.
Beyond delayed marriage, the health sector also faces the reality of the average age for first sexual intercourse decreasing to 18,7. However, knowledge about safe sex remains limited, with only 54% of adolescents using contraception during their first sexual encounter.
Furthermore, the sex ratio at birth imbalance persists at a high level, creating a risk of a surplus of men, which could increase women trafficking and gender-based violence in the future.
According to experts, the shifting perceptions of marriage in Vietnam reflect a strong global trend, as escalating living costs and evolving social priorities reshape family structures from East Asia to Europe.
In countries such as South Korea and Japan, governments are striving to reverse record-low birth rates amidst a "marriage strike" among youth, which has pushed the average age for first marriage past 30.
Similarly, in the European Union, economic instability and extended periods of education lead many couples to postpone childbearing, resulting in birth rates consistently below the replacement threshold of 2,1. In the US, the average marriage age has also reached its highest point in history, as the younger generation prioritizes career stability and reducing personal debt before starting a family.
To address this challenge, Deputy Minister Tuyen announced that the upcoming Population Law will prioritize policies to boost the birth rate and enhance human resource quality. The health sector plans to expand its network for prenatal screening and reproductive healthcare, while also developing community-based elderly care models. These solutions aim to alleviate the social welfare burden on the younger generation and ensure economic growth amid rapid demographic changes.
Le Nga
