A survey of travel agencies indicates that this wave of price adjustments originated from global fuel price fluctuations in April.

At that time, many tour operators did not immediately raise tour prices, thanks to pre-booked flight ticket series and continued cost support from airlines. However, as Quarter IV begins, these support policies conclude. Airlines are now allocating new ticket series for late 2026 and Quarter I/2027 with higher taxes and fees.

According to data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the average price of Jet A1 aviation fuel has remained consistently high this year, increasing by over 15% compared to the same period last year, influenced by geopolitical conflicts. This situation compels both domestic and international airlines to activate fuel surcharge adjustment clauses in their agency contracts to offset operating costs.

Pham Anh Vu, Deputy General Director of Du Lich Viet, stated that tour prices must increase because businesses are required to purchase group tickets at the new rates. Currently, airlines are developing plans and providing rolling quotes for each route, so the detailed price increase for some segments is not yet fixed.

Du khach mac kimono chup hinh tai Dotonbori, Osaka. Anh: LiveJapan

In the TP HCM market, routes utilizing domestic airline services have projected adjustment levels. Specifically, the Thailand route may see an increase of 1 million VND, while the South Korea route could rise by 2-3 million VND.

The most significant increase is expected in the Japan market. Hoang Nghia Dat, Chairman of MayTrip's Board of Directors, noted that Japan tour prices for Quarter IV could increase by an additional 3-5 million VND after airlines update their new tax and fee structures. This market received substantial price stabilization support in April and will therefore experience the most noticeable impact once these preferential packages expire.

For the China market, fluctuations began in Quarter II and Quarter III as airlines continuously raised ticket prices. Some carriers even had to cancel flights due to low operational efficiency amid escalating fuel costs. This trend of cancellations, affecting both commercial and charter flights, is expected to persist. Dat forecasts that China tour prices will continue to increase by an additional 2-5% in the near future.

Looking ahead to next year, businesses anticipate a significant price increase compared to 2026, as inflation and fuel surcharges show no signs of cooling down. Some peak season tours, such as Japan during the cherry blossom season, are projected to increase by 10-12% compared to the same period.

Nguyen Nguyet Van Khanh, Director of Marketing and Communications at Vietravel, observed that adjusting the general level of tour prices is a common trend across the tourism industry since the beginning of the year. When structuring tour prices, businesses must balance service quality, negotiation capabilities with partners, market purchasing power, and the policies of service providers, especially airlines.

"Widespread sudden price surges are unlikely", Khanh said, adding that major travel agencies are proactively working with partners early, developing long-term products, and implementing early bird promotions to optimize costs for customers.

Echoing the forecast for price increases, Vu highlighted three core factors that will influence tour prices next year.

First is whether aviation fuel prices will stabilize or face new complex developments. The second factor stems from the overall economic landscape and the actual purchasing power of consumers in the Vietnam market. Finally, the degree of competition among airlines and international destinations will determine whether tour prices rise or fall.

According to the Civil Aviation Authority, fuel accounts for approximately 35-40% of an airline's total costs. Therefore, adjusting surcharges is an unavoidable solution to maintain flight frequencies.

Diem du lich Thien Dan tai Bac Kinh, Trung Quoc. Anh: CNN

To achieve stable tourism prices, Pham Anh Vu emphasized the market needs collaboration from state management agencies through tax and fee exemption or reduction packages to lower input costs for airlines.

Conversely, airlines also need to share the burden with the travel sector through flexible deposit policies.

"In the story of tour prices, travel agencies are in the middle and hope that all relevant parties find solutions to share the burden and alleviate pressure on the entire industry", Vu stated.

Hoai Anh